Hello and welcome back to Mortgage Advisor on FIRE. This week I discuss some new ways to look at my FI progress. Also, thoughts on Sheffield Wednesday, and more thoughts on survivorship bias.
Weekly Update
It’s been another exhausting week. Although it’s a relief to have some work and money coming in, I’m still exhausted. I will adapt in time but it’s hard going through that adjustment. All in all, though, it’s still a great result to get a respectable redundancy payment and then walk into a job paying a good chunk more.
I’ve been struggling with feelings of being overwhelmed at times. I know I’m autistic but I also suspect there’s some ADHD in the mix as well. When I scan down the list of common symptoms of ADHD, I find myself mentally ticking them off. It’s very common for autistic people to also come with ADHD as part of the package. The label doesn’t bother me, but I’d love to have a little more focus on things that aren’t Lego or FI-related.
On the subject of Lego, we finished a new set this week. We bought the Jazz Club from the Modular Building line, and it’s great. It looks amazing when connected to the Tudor Corner set. If only we had the room to build and display a full street of buildings…
Sheffield Wednesday
I don’t talk a lot about football in this blog but I have some things I want to get off my chest. I’m a lifelong Sheffield Wednesday supporter. I went to my first match in the 1990/1991 season. I’ve seen us play up and down the country, and I have many good memories of watching us play.
Football has changed a lot in the past thirty years or so. The year before the Premier League started, Wednesday finished 3rd in the top division, above Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester City. We were a top club with England international players in the squad in the early to mid-90s, including Des Walker, Chris Woods, and the legendary Chris Waddle. We got to three cup finals in the space of three years, beating Manchester United for the League Cup, and losing to Arsenal in the FA Cup and League Cup finals.
The Steady Decline…
As the 90s drew to a close the club slowly started sinking with one bad decision after another. We utterly failed to capitalise on the way the game was changing. We fell out of the top division and started the early 2000s out of the Premier League. We’ve never been back since.
This club has so much potential but has gone from crisis to crisis, and false dawn to laughing stock. A decade ago we were taken over by Chansiri. We got to the Championship play-off final, just one game away from promotion, and we lost. Again, it’s pretty much been all downhill since.
I’m not going to list all the mistakes made since the 2015/2016 season as a simple Google search will give you all the information. The club is a mess though and I can’t see a way forward unless we are under new ownership. Sadly, frustratingly, and completely in the style of Sheffield Wednesday that doesn’t seem to be happening any time soon.
In football, to some extent, you get the club you deserve. The Wednesday fan base is huge and loyal. I would also suggest that, in general, we’re completely apathetic and we are part of the problem.
Traffic Jams…
I was chatting with a friend about something completely different but he said something that applies here: if you’re sat in a traffic jam, you’re part of the traffic jam. It’s the same with supporting a club, and it’s the same with Chansiri’s ownership.
As a group of supporters, we could force his hand and get him to sell the club quite easily, and quite quickly. The answer is so simple but no one wants to act on it because they refuse to see themselves as sitting in the traffic jam. The answer is to stop going to matches and to completely stop giving the club any more money. If that flow of money was to suddenly stop, how long would it be before he was forced to sell?
It’s like the human brain; all you have to do is cut off the supply of oxygen for a few minutes and it’s game over.
Stop Spending…
I stopped spending money on the club just before covid when I saw the way things were going. I know many others who also stopped but the majority haven’t. That’s the problem. They can’t see how they’re part of the problem, and I’m sorry to be that blunt but this is one situation where you’re either part of the problem or part of the solution. The main reasons people say they will not stop going to the matches is because they don’t want to give up seeing their friends, having a drink, or other similar things. Fair enough, but you have to understand that by continuing to do this you are supporting the status quo.
Another reason people say it’s not worth doing anything to protest the way the club is run is because many have already paid in advance for season tickets for upcoming seasons. Granted, that is not ideal, but you can still commit to not spending anything more and not attending games in the meantime. This isn’t a lifelong change that’s being asked, but a short-term stand until Chansiri is gone.
We get the club we deserve.
Birthday Meal
It was my Mom’s birthday recently and four of us (me, Oana, my Mom, and her husband) went for a meal at a restaurant in our area called Domo. Oana and I ate there when it first opened in 2019 and it was not a great experience. I had pretty bad food poisoning and spent much of the evening throwing up. Since then, we avoided it despite the place getting rave reviews.
Anyway, we were looking for somewhere to go for food and we all like Italian food. Our normal choices for Italian have declined in quality over the years, and so we decided to give Domo another try.
The food was decent, ranging from good to great with no weak dishes. I had polenta with mushrooms and fresh truffle for the starter, and ox tail with pecorino mash for my main. We all ate different dishes from the menu and between us had seafood stew, pasta, arancini, and calzone. We were all, for the most part, happy with the food.
For four of us, considering none of us had alcohol, the bill was a little high at £192. I would say the food was good, but not worth that amount. If the restaurant was not in Kelham Island I suspect the prices would be 10%-20% lower.
I would go back but would order less food as the portions were pretty hefty. Overall, not a meal that blew me away but still good in general.
What I’m Doing
Listening: Tools of Titans by Tim Ferriss
Watching: Nothing – not had the time.
I’ve found Tools of Titans a frustrating book so far. There are some nice little anecdotes presented but, as is often the case when reading about successful people, there’s little attention given to luck, chance, or whatever you want to call it.
Success stories often captivate audiences with narratives of hard work, determination, and skill. However, these stories frequently downplay or entirely overlook the role of luck. This omission can lead to distorted perceptions of success, heavily influenced by survivorship bias; the logical error of concentrating on people or things that made it past a selection process while overlooking those that did not.
The concept of meritocracy suggests that success is purely the result of individual talent and effort. While hard work and skill undoubtedly play significant roles, ignoring the impact of luck creates an incomplete picture. Factors such as being in the right place at the right time, chance encounters, or even the socio-economic conditions into which one is born can dramatically influence outcomes.
Survivorship Bias
Survivorship bias exacerbates the underestimation of luck by focusing on winners while ignoring the vast majority who, despite similar efforts and talents, did not succeed. For example, entrepreneurial success stories often highlight the few startups that became global giants, while thousands of failed ventures are forgotten. This selective focus reinforces the belief that success is entirely self-made, dismissing the randomness and external factors involved.
In the business world, people like Steve Jobs or Jeff Bezos are frequently cited as paragons of visionary success. While their talents and drive are undeniable, luck played roles in their journeys be it in meeting the right co-founders, securing critical funding, or entering markets at opportune times.
In sports, survivorship bias can be seen in the narratives of professional athletes. Stories often focus on the dedication and talent required to reach the top but rarely acknowledge the role of genetic predisposition, access to elite training facilities, or sheer chance in avoiding career-ending injuries.
People often downplay luck because acknowledging it challenges the notion of control over one’s destiny. Accepting that randomness plays a role in success can be unsettling, leading individuals to favour narratives that emphasize skill and effort. This cognitive bias reinforces the myth of meritocracy and perpetuates unrealistic expectations.
Back to the book…
Tim Ferriss’s Tools of Titans exemplifies the tendency to highlight strategies and habits of successful individuals while underplaying the role of luck. The book compiles insights from high achievers across various fields, suggesting that adopting certain routines or mindsets can lead to similar success. While Tools of Titans offers valuable advice on productivity, health, and wealth, it often glosses over the randomness and external factors that also contribute to success.
The book reinforces survivorship bias by focusing solely on those who have “made it,” implicitly suggesting that replicating their habits guarantees similar outcomes. It neglects to explore how luck, such as being born into advantageous circumstances, encountering the right opportunities, or even avoiding major setbacks, played a role in the success stories it celebrates. This omission risks perpetuating the flawed belief that success is entirely within one’s control.
Recognising the role of luck doesn’t diminish the importance of hard work but fosters a more nuanced understanding of success. It promotes empathy for those who struggle despite their efforts and can lead to more equitable systems that account for structural disadvantages.
Also, a little bit of humility goes a long way.
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DonateDonate monthlyDonate yearlyFinancial Update
Assets
Premium Bonds: £30,000.00.
Stocks and Shares ISA: £92,321.40.
Fuck It Fund: £6,566.54.
Pensions: £95,524.56.
Residential Property Value: £237,228.00.
Total Assets: £461,640.50.
Debts
Residential Mortgage: £184,200.23.
Total Debts: £184,200.23.
Total Wealth: £277,440.27.
No major changes in my finances this week, and just the usual fluctuations in the stock market. I’m inching closer to the £100k mark in my pension and ISA, and when the ISA allowance refreshes I should see my balance finally go into six figures.
I should receive my first wage from my new job this coming week, but it won’t quite be a full month as I started a couple of days into February. Still, it’s going to be nice having that regular salary again. I did receive a payment from Lloyds this week, which was a nice surprise. Quite what I will do with the 47p they sent me I don’t know; how much is a Freddo these days? I have absolutely no idea why I got this payment and if I get a chance I’ll give their payroll a call and ask about it.
State of the FI
If you are anything like me, your FI number probably changes daily. On a good day when things are all going well, you might feel like working longer. On a bad day, you may start thinking about how you’d be happy with lean FI if it meant you could give up work sooner.
Realistically, I’m still some distance away from full FI, but maybe not as far as I’d feared. One common way to judge progress towards FI is to work out how much you could live on based on a 4% withdrawal rate. However, the 4% rule has come under increasing scrutiny with some people suggesting it’s too conservative. I would feel comfortable with a higher withdrawal rate during my ISA bridge phase, perhaps 5% or even 6%. Once I was living off my pension I would probably be more comfortable with 4.5% to 5% initially, but the reality is as I get older my spending will probably reduce anyway.
Based on the assumption that I’ll be working for at least a few more years, I think a bridging fund of £400,000 would be more than enough, and this is made up of my ISA and Premium Bonds. I’m almost halfway there. My pension has more time to grow but it will hopefully have to support me for longer than my bridging fund. £600,000 at 5% would provide an income of £30k p/a, which would be enough for a decent enough living when retired. More would be better, obviously, but £600,000 is a nice goal to aim for.
How far along am I with these two goals?
Bridge Fund
Pension Fund
Although it looks like my pension is not far along, the percentage is misleading. If you were starting from £0 and aiming for £600,000 by investing £1,000pm at 6%, it would take 23 years to get to just shy of £600k. However, after 12 years, so more than halfway along the timeline, you’d only have £210,000. That’s the beauty of compound growth.
That’s all for this week. Thank you for reading, and I hope you have a great week ahead.
DISCLAIMER
The views and opinions in this blog are my own, and do not represent the views or opinions of my former, current, or future employers, nor should they be considered advice.
If you want personalised financial advice, seek an appropriate professional. If you are in financial difficulty, seek advice via the resources below:
Biolink
You can now find all my social media pages by checking out my Biolink:
bio.link/davidscothern.
The ubiquity of the “work hard and never give up to achieve success” narrative, while ignoring the role of luck, in our society is remarkable. Essentially it is a form of toxic positivity, that leaves all those who worked hard and never gave up but ultimately failed, in despair. Survivorship bias is rooted in the need of insecure humans for control over their existence. This need is so deeply hardwired into us, that we require actual training in critical thinking, or a non-standard neurotype, to overcome it. This is why existentialist-absurdist philosophy was seen as dangerous or immoral by reactionary society, but more appreciated by deep thinkers.
Good to see the Owls getting a mention as one of those readers who originally found you through them.
It seems many of us are on the same page with the owner and his attitude – I have also been thinking about his perspective a lot recently – if you’re the child of a billionaire and you’re FI is secure without question, the whole world must start to look very different. Particularly in terms of how you spend your life, time and attitude towards risk and failure. It’s a given that he bought the club on some level to bond with his own child who is into football (let’s not even get into the fact that a 10 year old probably makes a lot of the decisions – i.e. appointing Carlos)
I am guessing many people in this category own football clubs as it lets them play business and gain some kind of recognition – cures the boredom and gives you something to talk about with your equally bored and unfulfilled billionaire friends.
I am guessing Wednesday is currently costing Chansiri £5 or £6 million a year (the equivalent of us subscribing to Netflix at £9 a month), and he’s probably £140/180m deep. If we do all stop going then his £6 million might become £8m or £9m per year – but in his terms the price of a coffee. Or the equivalent of Netflix emailing us saying £9 will become £11.
So I do wonder if even that would work in any meaningful sense, and how much is simple ego – with any luck in a couple of years you’ll be be writing about the Chansiri years as past history and that the club are ripping fans off with Champions league pricing…
It’s a good point about how much difference it will make, but it’s the only real difference we can make. The whole situation is so frustrating. We will never progress in any meaningful way until we have new ownership.
My friend is a Blackpool FC fan and there was a time when he stopped going to home matches as he didn’t want any of his money going to the owner. He and fellow supporters just followed his team to away matches.
Good luck to the Owls for the rest of the season, still within reach of the play offs.
Last night’s result was a big surprise. I didn’t think we’d get anything when we were 2-0 down. Now we’ve got the Steel City Derby at the weekend…