Part 225

Hello and welcome back to Mortgage Advisor on FIRE.  This week I discuss statistics and data analysis.  Also, some small progress on the BTL sale.

Weekly Update

Our tenants have now moved out of the property and I’m delighted that they left the property clean and tidy.  Our previous two tenants did pretty much the exact opposite.  There are a few cosmetic bits that need addressing but there’s no reason to withhold any of their deposit.  Once we’ve done the little jobs the property will be ready for viewings.  It’s already listed online and there’s a for sale sign outside the property.  Fingers crossed it’s a speedy process from here on out.

On Thursday I met up with a friend to catch up and to drop off some stuff with a charity.  Other than that it’s just been another week of work, work, and a bit more work.  It’s been great finishing early in the day, but the even earlier starts will take some getting used to.  I was working on Saturday whilst Oana took care of the household jobs for the day.  We then sat down with a takeaway (Indian) and some TV (For All Mankind).  Sometimes the simple things are the best; no bells or whistles, just good company, good food, and good stories.

On Sunday, a little after this post is published, we’ll be having lunch for a family birthday.  Then it’s back to another week of work.  I’m trying to hold off on booking any holidays until April, at which point I should be able to have at least a week off work every five-six weeks until the end of the year.  So, it’s just a case of getting my head down and ticking off the days one at a time.

Data and Statistics

A well-designed spreadsheet is a thing of beauty.  It becomes less of a science and more of an art.  There’s something so satisfying about constructing a sheet full of little formulas and when you tweak one cell, you see all the other changes follow automatically.  The only thing that improves this experience is viewing it on a massive screen.  Just like Alan Johnson, “I’ve got a 32” plasma in mine. You get a document up on that baby and you are seriously looking at that document.”

What makes spreadsheets so awesome is not the format of the document itself, but rather the data it stores.  Data is not inherently good or bad; data simply is.  However, data in the wrong hands can be misleading, or even dangerous.

When it comes to data there are a lot of things to take into consideration, such as;

  • What are you trying to measure?
  • How are you going to measure it?
  • How will the data be collected?
  • How will the data be analysed?
  • Are you willing to follow the data, question what it suggests, and take appropriate action?

The scientific method has a fairly standard order in which data is collected.  The first step is to decide on a research area or question.  This can start as broad or narrow as desired, but once you have a question you then start researching that area. Once you have a better understanding of the topic, you may refine your question and form a hypothesis, which is a proposed answer to the question you have asked.  You then have to create a way of testing the hypothesis and collect the required data, which you then subject to appropriate analysis.  Once the analysis is complete, you discuss your results and, often, propose further research to better investigate your conclusions.  This is the strength of science, as it is always building, developing, and evolving.  Anyway, back to my point about data…

Too often people approach this whole process in reverse.  They decide what it is they believe, and then go searching for data to back up their belief, whilst ignoring data that contradicts their belief.  This process is not just a waste of time, it’s offensive to reason and logic.  Misleading, false, or fraudulent data can be deadly; just look at what happened to vaccination rates following the false claims that vaccines lead to autism.  

When I was studying my BSc I completed my dissertation on home advantage in professional football.  I suggested that home advantage was due to stadium design, the placement of fans, and the prematch routine or ritual of the club in question.  The first thing I had to do was conceptualise or define home advantage.  You can’t just say that because Liverpool wins more games at home than Burnley, then Liverpool has more home advantage.  That’s not what you are measuring.  You are not measuring Liverpool’s home performance against Burnley’s.  You are measuring Liverpool’s home form against their away form, and doing the same for every team, to work out which teams perform much better at home than they do away.  

I spent ages on this dissertation.  It was months of hard work and it paid off.  I was able to work with some great lecturers at the university, and I was able to gain the support and participation of some huge clubs in the Premier League and Championship.  Their generosity of time and information was incredible.  I got a first on my dissertation and it’s something I’m really happy with.  This all came from devising a question, obtaining the right data, and analysing it correctly.  It wasn’t enough to just find out if home advantage was a real phenomenon; that’s not all that interesting in itself.  The interesting bit is finding out why home advantage exists, and what can be done to improve it.

There are a lot of people out there who assume that because you can measure something, you can control it, and use it to improve performance.  However, this fails to account for the ingenuity of the people being monitored.  Or, as Bill Gates once said, “I’ll choose a lazy person for a hard job, because a lazy person will find an easy way to do it.”

Often, when people decide to start measuring something, they are measuring the wrong thing, and it can lead to unexpected and unhelpful behaviour.  When I was completing my dissertation I had a long talk with one of the sport psychology lecturers who told me about his experience working with a top football club.  They’d appointed a manager who was big on data analysis.  The manager was trying to improve the pass completion rate for his team, as he felt they were giving possession away too cheaply.  The whole team’s performance had been reduced to a single metric; the pass completion percentage.  

This team had one player who consistently had much lower pass completion rates than his teammates.  This was a creative player who would often try a defence-splitting pass which, if successful, would lead to a great chance to score a goal.  90% of the time, the pass may be unsuccessful, but it only needs to work once for a goal to be scored.  However, because this manager was hammering his team to improve their pass completion rates, this player lost his confidence and stopped trying the killer pass, and started playing the safe option instead.  Pass completion rates increased, but by almost every other measure the team’s performance worsened.  Fewer goals were being scored, fewer points were being won.  Players became scared of losing possession of the ball and stopped taking risks.  The manager wanted to improve the team’s performance and decided that improving possession retention was the way to go about it.  So, the players started performing against this target instead of the targets that actually mattered.  

In summary; data can be very powerful as a tool to influence performance.  In the hands of those with limited experience, it can be counterproductive.  People will, generally, do the absolute minimum required to hit a target they have been set.  This is only compounded when the target is arbitrary and seemingly disconnected from reality.  The players in that team probably knew that pass completion rates were interesting and insightful, but not the whole story.  

What Am I Doing?

TV: For All Mankind (Apple TV).

Audiobook: More Money Than God by Sebastian Mallaby.

For All Mankind continues to be engaging and entertaining.  I’m enjoying it, and it takes a lot to keep my interest in TV now.  If you like sci-fi and/or alt-history, you should check it out.  It’s available on Apple TV.

Financial Update

Assets

Premium Bonds: £13,150.00. 

Stocks and Shares ISA: £60,047.49. 

Fuck It Fund: £6,029.25.

Pensions: £71,924.10. 

Residential Property Value: £228,116.00. 

BTL Property Value: £147,203.00.

Total Assets: £526,469.84. 

Debts

Residential Mortgage: £173,195.63. 

BTL Mortgage: £104,912.43.

Total Debts: £278,108.06. 

Total Wealth: £248,361.78.

Investment Income in 2023: £661.27 (target £10,000).

I was asked why I stopped showing the weekly change in the values of my assets and debts.  There are two reasons.  The first is that I’m constantly pushed for time, and cutting out this step saves me 15-20 minutes and is an easy win.  The second reason is that I’m now at a stage where week-to-week performance doesn’t tell me a lot.  I can see swings of a couple of thousand pounds in my ISA from one week to the next, and it’s a case of “So what?”  Yes, I want the numbers to increase and my investments to grow at a decent rate of interest, but these things don’t work in a straight line.  

I don’t have much to talk about in respect of my finances this week either.  It’s been a very quiet week in that regard.  I would normally have received a rental payment but that ship has sailed.  By next week I should have received a dividend payment and I’m hoping to have some viewings lined up for our sale.  

That’s all for this week.  I hope you have a great week ahead, and please remember to like, share, comment, and subscribe.  

Disclaimer

The views and opinions in this blog are my own, and do not represent the views or opinions of my employer, nor should they be considered advice.

If you want personalised financial advice, seek an appropriate professional.  If you are in financial difficulty, seek advice via the resources below:

StepChange

MoneyHelper

Biolink 

You can now find all my social media pages by checking out my Biolink:

bio.link/davidscothern.

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Part 224

Hello and welcome back to Mortgage Advisor on FIRE.  This week I discuss safe withdrawal rates, scammers on Facebook, fun with cold callers, and a strange situation with a friend.

Weekly Update

We’ve made some changes inside our apartment as both Oana and I will be working from home full-time shortly.  So, we’ve got Oana a new desk, chair, and a few other bits and pieces.  As part of this, we’ve also bought some more Kallax units from Ikea so I can display more Lego.  Priorities, am I right?

All of this means we have a few things that we need to get rid of, including a rowing machine, a beanbag, and a footstool.  All of these items are pretty much brand new and unused.  The rower would have been used were it not for my shoulder and elbow troubles, which persist to this day.  The beanbag and footstool were bought when we did our big refurb a couple of years ago.  In hindsight, we got carried away, and neither has been used.

Anyway, I sold the rower on Facebook marketplace and the buyer was great; polite, friendly, communicative, and paid without hassle.  He haggled the price down a little (£250 down from £280) but I didn’t mind because he was just a genuinely nice guy.

New workspace for Oana

At the opposite end of the spectrum, we have the scammers.  These people are the worst.  I received a message from a woman wanting to buy the beanbag.  It all seemed ok, and then she asked for my bank details to send the payment over.  Not a problem, I always prefer bank transfers to cash because handling physical money is gross.  Then, she asked for my email address because her bank account needed an email to send a receipt to as it was a business account she was using.  This got my Spider-sense tingling, but didn’t send me directly to red alert; more yellow alert.  This woman then wanted a screenshot of my emails at which point I binned the whole thing off,  and reported and blocked her.

The fun and games did not stop there.  Later that same day another woman got in touch about the footstool, saying she wanted to buy it.  Then, she says she will send a “UPS Postman” with cash to come and collect it.  If you don’t know, this is a common scam.  I replied, asking her if she had read the item’s description and she returned saying she had.  I found this interesting because in the description I stated clearly that people wanting to try weird shit like sending a courier to pick it up will be ignored.

I stopped selling on eBay because of scammers, and Facebook is starting to go down the same route.  It’s not just the scammers but the people looking to rip you off with insultingly low offers.  Can you tell this annoys me?

Another thing that annoys me (apologies this is turning into a rant, you’ll just have to let me run out of steam) is cold calls.  For a while now I’ve started having fun with them by;

  • Claiming not to believe in phones, whilst talking with them on the phone.
  • Claiming to be a close personal friend of various members of the monarchy.
  • Asking for more details of their scam, as I work in fraud investigations.
  • Replying only in film and TV quotes.

This week, I took a new approach when Josh from Sky called.  I answered the call in a whisper and continued talking in a whisper until near the end.  The conversation went like this:

Me:  hello?

Them: Hello?

Me:  hello?

Them: Is that David?

Me: yeah

Them: It’s Josh at Sky…

Me: ok

Them: Can you hear me?

Me: I’m playing hide and seek with my girlfriend and I don’t want her to hear me

Them: I wanted to talk to you about a new package

Me:  Wait… Wait… I think she found me **starts yelling** fuuuuuuuuck **end call**

Now, credit where it’s due, Josh called me back later that day but I was distracted when I answered so didn’t commit to pretending to be trying to find my girlfriend as she was now hiding.  

So that’s been my week in a nutshell; dealing with scammers and winding up cold callers.  How was your week?

Ghosting and Friends

This one is really strange and it’s left me completely confused.  Oana, and to a lesser degree me, had made friends with a woman over several months.  What had started as a business relationship organically evolved into an actual friendship.  This woman sent us gifts for our birthdays, and for Poppy.  Oana and her would talk daily, sometimes for hours, and I would exchange messages with her now and then.  We met in person numerous times and even had her over for dinner several times.  The point is, that this was a seemingly genuine friendship built over a prolonged period.

A few weeks back this friend went radio silent.  She was not seen on WhatsApp for weeks, and would not respond to calls, texts, or any other attempt to communicate.  Oana and I were seriously worried for her, with all sorts of thoughts running through our minds; was she in the hospital? Had she died? Was she trapped in an abusive relationship? Pretty much every terrible thought you can have about what has befallen someone, we had.  

Oana and I talked about this situation trying to work out what we knew about this woman.  We knew her name, but not her address.  Despite her having our address and visiting our home, she was always cagey about divulging her information.  She has no online presence; no social media or anything like that under the name we know her by.  All we knew was that she claimed to live on the other side of our city.  

We were both concerned about her welfare, and Oana in particular was upset as she had become close to this woman.  Eventually, we received a text just stating she was ok and would talk to us at some point.  

I don’t know what has gone on to make this person go completely off the grid for weeks and ignore all attempts at communication when just a day before going radio silent she was communicating with us normally.  This wasn’t a one-way street with us bombarding her either; many times she would initiate conversations and keep them going.  Was this an attempt to probe for information?  The whole thing is just very strange.  I’m of the view that people change over time, and as people change so do relationships.  Some friendships fizzle out, and that’s ok, but I’m always of the view that it’s best to just be upfront about it.  This didn’t fizzle though; it went from hot to cold as quickly as turning out a light.

Financial Independence and AITA

Oana and I have a guilty pleasure, in that we like to read stories from the subreddit Am I The Asshole (AITA) and then judge talk through them.  Some of the stories are clickbait, but some of them seem genuine.  One we discussed on Friday evening involved a married couple in their 30s.  The brief overview is that the guy was doing some cleaning and found a holdall at the back of the wardrobe, which the woman had filled with clothes, toiletries, and $1,000 cash.  When the guy asked her about it, she revealed it was her “go bag” in case she needed to leave in a hurry due to domestic abuse.  The guy felt hurt that his wife didn’t trust him, and felt the need to have that backup.  If we take the guy at his word, he’s a chill person, who doesn’t get angry.  I appreciate that the first eight words of the previous sentence are doing some heavy lifting, but let’s just assume it’s true.  He is now considering divorcing his wife, and breaking up the family as they have a young child together.  Does the guy have grounds to feel hurt?

I think it’s understandable that he’s hurt, but I also think he needs to acknowledge the fact we live in a society which is far from equal.  We live in a world in which, when a woman has a baby, her earning potential drops.  I’ve heard this referred to as the “Motherhood Penalty”.  Even when children are not a factor, women face major inequalities in the workplace and with their earnings from work.  Our society is far from equal, despite how much we might want to kid ourselves that it is.  It’s not entirely a one-way street, as men are expected to live up to certain stereotypes as well, but I’m not going down that rabbit hole today.  Coming back to the question, does this guy have grounds to feel hurt?

Well, yes, I think it’s natural to feel hurt if you are genuinely a good person who has never given any indication that you’re abusive or could be abusive.  However, we don’t make emergency plans on the basis that we think we’ll need to use them.  We make these plans in the hope we don’t have to use them.  A young woman with a young child is amongst the most vulnerable sections of society.  It’s all too easy for a woman in this situation to become trapped after giving birth, and there’s a term for this; “baby trapping”.

The way I look at this in my relationship is that I insist Oana has her own financial independence.  Yes, we pay jointly for our joint commitments, but she has her cash, and I have mine.  Oana has said more than once that she’s happy to use her savings for things for me, or us, but I believe that she needs to have her own pot of cash that is just her own and that she should add to that regularly so she has an emergency fund.  I do this because having your own emergency pot of money is just good-fucking-sense.  Where is the good in trapping someone in a relationship?  

What Am I Doing?

TV: For All Mankind (Apple TV).

Audiobook: The Invisible Universe by Matthew Bothwell.

I’ve seen people raving about For All Mankind for ages and we’ve finally got around to watching it, well the first episode at least.  It’s an alt-history show which features a different outcome to the race to land people on the moon.  I’ve heard some people say it works as an almost prequel to The Expanse, so I’ll be interested to see how that plays out.  For All Mankind has a big cast and some strong names on the production team.  Ronald D. Moore is one of the creators, and fans of Star Trek and the reboot of Battlestar: Galactica will recognise his name.  Another name that always stands out to me is Naren Shankar, who has also worked on ‘Trek, and served as co-showrunner on The Expanse.  He also has a background in Applied Physics and Electrical Engineering.  In short, I’m excited to get stuck into this show as I think it’s got a lot of expertise and creativity behind it.  

Financial Update

Assets

Premium Bonds: £13,150.00. 

Stocks and Shares ISA: £58,715.38. 

Fuck It Fund: £6,029.25.

Pensions: £71,314.32. 

Residential Property Value: £228,116.00. 

BTL Property Value: £147,203.00.

Total Assets: £524,527.95.

Debts

Residential Mortgage: £173,195.63. 

BTL Mortgage: £104,912.43.

Total Debts: £278,108.06. 

Total Wealth: £246,419.89.

Investment Income in 2023: £661.27 (target £10,000).

There’s not a huge amount to talk about with my finances at the moment.  It’s been a week where not much happened; no investment income, and no changes to my debts.  It’s going to be a similar story this coming week, and then the week after I’ll receive a dividend payment.  

The big story for the coming week is that my tenants are moving out on 11th February, so by the time you read this they will have already ended their tenancy.  Once the end of tenancy inspection is complete we can look at getting the house on the market.  It will be a relief to have it sold and be done with the BTL experiment.  

Safe Withdrawal Rates

The 4% safe withdrawal rate has long been considered a golden rule for retirees, providing a seemingly safe benchmark for sustainable income in retirement. However, we should question whether this rule is too cautious for all situations. 

One of the most important pieces of information regarding SWR is the failure rate, but I think the failure rate is often misunderstood.  FIRE plans don’t just fail suddenly.  We’re talking about financial plans that are set up for decades of spending.  If you need to drawdown £2,000 per month, and you are sticking to the 4% rule, you would need a pot of £600,000.  If that pot was to drop in value to £550,000, then you would need to draw approximately 4.36% to still have £2,000.  Note: the withdrawal rate is based on the assumption the monthly drawdown will remain constant throughout the year.  

The great thing about such a long-term plan is that you can always adjust things on the fly.  If you have a month where the market has boomed, you may not need to draw 4%.  Other months might see you draw down 6%, or 8%.  The point is you can tighten your belt, or loosen the purse strings as you go.  If it looks like you are going to deplete your funds more quickly, or the market is going through a rough patch, you can reassess your spending or even take up a little part-time work to subsidise your cost of living.

4% is very cautious, and understandably so.  No blogger or advisor will want to give advice that could go wrong, especially about something so important.  However, this leads to situations where success and failure rates are treated like a roll of the dice, in which the outcome is instant with no room to amend or adjust.  In reality, if you are keeping an eye on your finances, you should have plenty of time to change your strategy to make sure you don’t fail.  

Ultimately, you have to do what is right for you.  Everyone has a different approach and different preferences.  If you are looking to retire at 60, do you think your spending will be the same at 70? 80? Or 90?  Likewise, if you are retiring at 40, will your spending be the same at 60?

You may consider all this and decide on an even more cautious SWR, or you may realise you can be more aggressive in your approach to FIRE.  

There was a story in the news this week talking about new data suggesting people need much more money to have a comfortable retirement.  The main points are in this snip I’ve taken from the story:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68222807#

I often find stories like this to be frustrating.  The first thing to think about is what constitutes comfort in retirement. Comfort can look very different from person to person.  I’m also dubious of the massive gap between a minimum income, and the income needed for a comfortable retirement.  I know personally that the difference between a basic life and a comfortable life is not the best part of £30,000.  I’m happy with my current standard of living, and I could maintain that with £20k net per year.  

Research like this always feels like a one-size-fits-all approach, and I think people should be wary of looking at these figures and panicking.  Take stock of your finances, think about what you want your future to look like, and then proceed from there.

Until next time, thank you for reading, and if you want to discuss any of the points in this blog, leave a comment and I’ll respond as soon as possible.

Disclaimer

The views and opinions in this blog are my own, and do not represent the views or opinions of my employer, nor should they be considered advice.

If you want personalised financial advice, seek an appropriate professional.  If you are in financial difficulty, seek advice via the resources below:

StepChange

MoneyHelper

Biolink 

You can now find all my social media pages by checking out my Biolink:

bio.link/davidscothern.

Part 223

Hello and welcome back to Mortgage Advisor on FIRE.  This week I discuss pensions, and whether or not the state pension is a good benefit.  Also, some more updates to the website, and a look at free speech.  

Site Update

I’ve made a few changes to the site since last week, including a few new pages, and tweaks to existing pages.  You can check out the new sections on the links below:

About

Supporting Mortgage Advisor on FIRE

Reading Lists

I have some ideas for other, new, sections I want to add to the site, but I want to finish updating the existing content first.  I’m going through my reading lists to add links to the books mentioned.  These links will take you to the Amazon listing, and if you buy the book from that link it will earn me a small commission.  It’s another way to help support the cost of running and maintaining this site.

The other big task is to go through all my previous posts and tidy them up, and I’m going to try and create an index of common themes, so if you want to read my posts about property investing, for example, there will be a list of the blogs that focus on that.  This will be a big project and might not be complete for several weeks.

Weekly Update

I’ve been having some debates around free speech with people this week.  It’s one of those subjects that people tend to make lazy declarations to support their claims, “I can say what I want, it’s a free country!” Or, “I’ve got freedom of speech, so I can say what I want!”

Freedom of speech does not mean freedom from consequences.  It doesn’t even mean what it claims to mean when you get down into the details, and I’d even go as far as suggesting almost everyone who claims that their freedom of speech is total would stop and consider when presented with the following thought experiment:

You are out and about with a loved one, someone you care deeply about.  It could be your mother, father, partner, or child, it doesn’t matter.  Just someone who you love.  You are walking down the street and some random person starts making comments about your loved one.  It could be based on appearance, for example.  Think of the worst possible racial slurs.  Would you just shrug and consider it freedom of speech?

Most people would realise that the behaviour of this other person is unacceptable, and so the conclusion is that total freedom of speech is generally a bad idea.  When we talk about freedom of speech, we are talking about it with certain limitations.  

People should have, among their basic rights, a right to live their lives without fear of physical or mental abuse, bullying, discrimination, and persecution.  However, this only extends to the point where it does not infringe on other people’s basic rights.  Some people may point out the flaw regarding the Golden Rule and masochists, but that’s a debate for another time; to be brief, the Golden Rule argues we should treat others as we would want them to treat us.  For most people, it’s a decent rule of thumb, but for people who get off on being abused, it’s probably not a good idea.

The long and short of it is that you can physically say anything you want, but having freedom of speech does not prevent you from facing the consequences of what you say.  

On Friday evening Oana and I went to Peddler Market for the first time in a few months.  It’s a monthly event with live music, street food, and various independent arts and crafts pop-ups.  On our way over to the venue we hoped that Kebab Cartel would be there, and sure enough, they were.  These guys do great street food and we both opted for the Escobar bowl, which included chicken shawarma, fries, salad, jalapenos, a whole chilli, and a few other tasty bits and pieces.  It was amazing. Paddler was noticeably quieter this time though, with fewer food stalls than usual.  We had a look around for some other food to share and decided to have a few strips of fried chicken.  It was bang average, and expensive for what it was; four pieces of fried chicken, a few fries, and some gravy, all for £14.  It was not worth the money. 

Saturday saw me working in the day and then in the evening Oana and I popped down to my Dad’s apartment to watch a movie with him.  We ordered some food; an amazing curry from Ma-Ba, and watched Interstellar.  Originally we wanted to watch Shin Godzilla, but it was only available dubbed from the original Japanese, and none of us could do dubbed television.  Original audio and subtitles are fine, but dubbed stuff is a bit too uncanny valley for me.

Interstellar is a great movie.  I remember watching it on Imax when it first came out, and the visuals, the soundtrack, the story, and the acting are all excellent.  I don’t generally like using the word, as I feel it’s overused, but it’s an epic.  

Poppy

Our cat, Poppy, continues to be a source of happiness for us.  She’s so affectionate and sweet, and she is still very playful for an older cat.  We’ve been enjoying playing with long pieces of string, and she’ll chase me around the apartment trying to catch it.  We’ve bought her all sorts of toys in the past, but she still prefers batting around hair ties and chasing string.  She also really enjoys “shoulder time”, where she will look at you a certain way and you know she wants to be held.  It’s such a nice feeling having her resting on your shoulder purring away.  She is such a character and we’ve been so lucky to have her in our life.  We’ve been extremely lucky with each of the three rescue cats we’ve had, as they’ve all been really sweet, well-behaved, and loving.  We had Sweep for a couple of years, and we’ve nearly had Poppy for as long.  The little guy we had in between these two, Bobby, was only with us a short time as he passed away suddenly.  If you decide to give a cat a home, please consider adopting a rescue cat, especially the older ones, as they are often overlooked.  

What Am I Doing?

TV: Extrapolations (Apple TV).

Audiobook: The Invisible Universe by Matthew Bothwell.

We watched a show on Apple TV this week called Extrapolations.  It’s an anthology-style show dealing with the impact of climate change on society, as well as the good and bad sides of technology.  The show starts strongly and gets weaker as it goes along.  At the time of writing the Rotten Tomatoes score is 44%, but I think that’s a little harsh.  I’d probably say it’s approximately 20% too low, but I’d still recommend it.  It’s thought-provoking and makes us ask some difficult questions, particularly about how much damage we are prepared to do to our environment in return for comfort and luxury.  Too often we will take an easy option over a slight inconvenience, such as jumping in a car to go a short distance rather than walking or using public transport, or buying products that have an awful carbon footprint rather than going for something more expensive but more socially responsible.

People can make a difference and I think it has to come through political and technological development.  Two of the most impactful things people can do in their daily lives to help are to start using public transport rather than cars for every single journey, and to reduce how much meat they eat.  What does meat have to do with climate change, you may ask?  Well, the production of a kilo of beef produces sixty times as much greenhouse gas compared to a kilo of peas.  I’m not talking about going vegan or cutting out meat completely.  The point is that we don’t need to eat monster burgers with half a kilo of beef inside, nor do we need to eat meat with every meal; bacon for breakfast, burger for lunch, and chicken for dinner, for example.  

It might seem like an impossible task to tackle climate change, especially when the vast majority of carbon emissions are from a handful of mega-corporations, but doing something is better than doing nothing.  There is no perfect solution, and taking no action because of this is just stupid.  Something is better than nothing.

Financial Update

Assets

Premium Bonds: £13,150.00. 

Stocks and Shares ISA: £59,567.68. 

Fuck It Fund: £6,029.25.

Pensions: £70,529.88. 

Residential Property Value: £228,116.00. 

BTL Property Value: £147,203.00.

Total Assets: £524,595.81. 

Debts

Residential Mortgage: £173,195.63. 

BTL Mortgage: £104,912.43.

Total Debts: £278,108.06. 

Total Wealth: £246,487.75.

Investment Income in 2023: £661.27 (target £10,000).

My pension pot has increased in value above £70,000 for the first time, and although going from £69,999 to £70,000 isn’t that different from £69,998 to £69,999, it feels different.  Changing that first digit from a 6 to a 7 is a huge boost, as it no doubt will when it changes from 7 to 8 in the future.  

I was asked an interesting question the other day; would I give up my state pension if I could take all my NI contributions and invest them privately instead?  The state pension might not be enough to live a comfortable life on, but as a benefit for most people, it is good value for money on the face of it.  Much of that value derives from the fact that as long as you’ve paid enough qualifying years, it doesn’t strictly speaking matter exactly how much in cash terms you pay.  There are limits and thresholds, but if one person is paying NI on a salary of £35,000, and another is paying NI on a salary of £40,000, they would still get the same state pension after paying in enough qualifying years despite the fact they will have paid different amounts of NI. 

It’s not that simple though as there are several factors people might not consider.  A state pension is not generally transferable.  A private pension pot would make up part of an estate upon death, which could then be left to another person.  Also, with a private pension you can choose how to draw down the value as an income.  The state pension simply pays out like a salary.  This can be either a good thing or a bad thing depending on your attitude to risk, how much actual money you paid in NI, and ultimately how long you are around to use that money.

Trying to calculate whether it would be better to utilise NI contributions through private investment compared to the current state pension scheme is difficult because so much will depend on individual circumstances.  I’m going to use a fairly simple example to test this out though, and I’m not sure how it will come out as I type this, so here goes…

The current state pension is £203.85 per week; £10,600.20 per year.  Assuming this was a 4% drawdown from an investment pot you would need a total fund of £265,005.  

Assuming our hypothetical person is earning the UK’s average salary (£34,963) and has a standard tax code with no benefits or salary sacrifice, we would expect them to pay NI at the rate of £186.61 a month.  

A person needs 35 years of contributions to be eligible for the full state pension.  Our calculation is thus; £186.61 x 35 years, with a growth rate of 6% (a fairly standard, and conservative figure for growth in the stock market).  This results in a figure of…..

£265,865.19.  

Huh.  I did not see that coming.

So, on one hand, we have the state pension which will pay out indefinitely assuming you’ve paid in for long enough.  It’s not transferable though, and does not entirely depend on the cash value of your payments into NI.  On the other hand, we have a private pension which can be transferred if you die, but depends on your investment choices and the performance of the economy.  It’s a tricky one, and it makes me glad I’m paying into both.

That’s all for this week.  Thanks for reading, and have a great week ahead. 

Disclaimer

The views and opinions in this blog are my own, and do not represent the views or opinions of my employer, nor should they be considered advice.

If you want personalised financial advice, seek an appropriate professional.  If you are in financial difficulty, seek advice via the resources below:

StepChange

MoneyHelper

Biolink 

You can now find all my social media pages by checking out my Biolink:

bio.link/davidscothern.

Part 222

Hello and welcome back to Mortgage Advisor on FIRE.  This week I discuss the reasons why we are working towards FIRE.  Also, some issues with the website, and the usual financial updates.

Site Update

I hope you have had a good week with little to no stress.  My week has been up and down with some good days, and some pretty frustrating incidents as well.  The main source of frustration has been this website, I’m sorry to say.  I’ve been trying to make some changes to the site and what I thought would be a relatively simple job, turned into hours of me staring at my computer uttering expletives.  

If you have tried to access my site during the week you may have experienced outages, or the layout of the site changing, or even the web address looking different.  I think the bulk of those issues are in the past now though, so I can hopefully start making some of the changes I have planned.

I want to go through my previous posts and tidy them up.  There are links in some of my earlier posts to other blogs, sites, and articles that are no longer valid.  I also want to tweak the appearance of some of my pages.  I tried changing to different themes with my site provider, but it didn’t go well.

One of the major issues I’m having relates to the plan I have with my site, and how much it costs.  I think it’s probably best that I provide a bit of context for those who are unfamiliar with running a website.  You have to find a company that will host your site; almost like the digital equivalent of finding a space in town for your shop or cafe.  These hosts will generally have a series of subscriptions for hosting your site; often there is a free version with limited features and storage space, and then increasingly expensive versions that come with extra features, support, and storage.  

Since I made the switch from my old host to my current one in 2021, I’ve been using one of the paid plans, but at the lower end of the spectrum.  I didn’t need anything more comprehensive back then, but as the site has grown and become more popular, I started to feel the need for some of those extra features, and some of that extra storage space.  As my current plan was coming to an end, I figured I’d upgrade a level.  It did not go smoothly.

I ended up spending hours trying to resolve simple issues with the site’s interface, and several features were just not working as they should.  The long and short of it was that I ended up cancelling the upgrade and upgrading again when I was offered a sizable discount.  

I need to think about the long-term future of the blog, however.  It takes time, and money, to run the site and that money could be used to push forward with FIRE.  I enjoy writing the blog, and I’ve made some great friends through it.  It would be a shame to close it down, but if it keeps getting more expensive to run and maintain the site, I might not have much option.

If you enjoy my blog there are things you can do to help promote the site, which in turn leads to more views, and more chance of the site becoming self-sufficient through advertising.  The biggest thing you can do is share the blog on social media.  Shares, for some reason, are the hardest thing to get.  Comments and likes are also great.  Other than that, if you have the means and willingness to help more directly, you can now make donations through the site without having to go through my BMAC page.  You can click on any of the payment buttons and donate.  

Weekly Update

I don’t have much else to report this week personally.  When I’ve not been working, or dealing with the technical issues already described, I’ve been playing with Poppy or helping Oana navigate various bureaucratic mazes.  I think it was Oscar Wilde who said, “The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy.”  It can often feel that way in our society.  

We had a disappointing brunch at an independent cafe on Thursday.  We like to try new places, and this one looked very nice.  However, they got our order wrong (and orders on neighbouring tables) and the food itself was poor.  Oana loves Turkish Eggs and when she sees it on the menu, she will often go for it, in much the same way I can’t resist Huevos Rancheros.  Anyway, this place had Turkish Eggs but they were almost inedible.  There was no seasoning, no garlic, or smokey paprika.  This meal should pack a real depth of flavour, but this was a bowl of tinned chopped tomatoes, and some overdone eggs with a hard yolk.  Also, there was no bread whereas good Turkish Eggs will have some nice warm bread that you can use to mop up all the tomato, egg yolk, and yoghurt.  The breakfast waffles I had were equally poor.  We left around two-thirds of the food uneaten.  It wasn’t a cheap meal either; just under £30 for the two plates, a coffee, and an apple juice.  

The biggest and best news of the week is that Oana has agreed to let me buy some more Lego when we eventually have the money to do so.  I see this as a good news story.  Granted, we can’t get any just yet, but I can still dream!  Some room has been made in my home office and I have my eyes on several sets.  Unfortunately, the Rivendell set will not fit in the space we’ve made, but the Viking Village probably will.  I’m waiting for any offers or sales that might come up because Lego is expensive.  The thing about Lego is that you are not simply paying for the little pieces of plastic.  You are paying for the work that went into creating the sets.  I’ve tried designing my own Lego on the computer using the Studio software and it’s very difficult.  You have to have the right brain for it, and it’s just not something I’m strong at.  It’s a bit like the story with Picasso and the napkin, which might be apocryphal but still makes a valid point.  The story is that Picasso was asked to draw something on a napkin by a woman.  Before handing the napkin over, he asked for payment, and he wanted a large sum (a million Francs, IIRC).  The woman was shocked and claimed it only took him a few minutes to draw the piece.  Picasso replied, “It took me decades to draw this in just a few minutes.”

This brings me to a point about money and time, and why there are some jobs you probably should not attempt yourself.  A few years ago I tried to complete a simple repair to a dishwasher.  It did not go well and escalated from a minor job to a complete replacement of the appliance.  There’s a difference between learning how to do something and realising that the juice is just not worth the squeeze.  For example, let’s say that you have a door that needs replacing.  You could spend ages researching it, buying the right equipment, and then battling for hours trying to get the door aligned correctly.  Or, you could call a professional, pay a bit of money, and save your time; the most precious resource you have.

What Am I Doing?

TV: nothing

Audiobook: Nemesis by Jeremy Robinson.

Regular readers of the blog will probably know I’m a big Jeremy Robinson fan.  He’s written many great stories, and some really ambitious series of books, including the epic Infinite Timeline, The Chess Team series, and the Nemesis Saga which was my introduction to JR.  Nemesis is a sort-of-but-not-quite reboot of the Saga, in which a massive kaiju (Nemesis) causes all sorts of chaos.  There’s a TV show in development with Chad Stahelski (the director of the John Wick films) leading the effort.  

I do enjoy Jeremy Robinson’s writing and he’s also a great guy.  He interacts with his fans on social media and he’s one of my friends on Facebook.  If you are a fan of sci-fi, horror, action, and stories that ask some difficult philosophical questions I would recommend you check his work out.  The best place to start is probably Infinite, the first book in the Infinite series, or The Didymous Contingency (where two scientists travel back in time to meet Jesus) or Alter, a book unlike anything else I’ve read, where the main character is lost in the jungle and has to adapt to survive.

Financial Update

Assets

Premium Bonds: £13,150.00. 

Stocks and Shares ISA: £59,520.99. 

Fuck It Fund: £6,000.00.

Pensions: £69,936.28. 

Residential Property Value: £228,116.00. 

BTL Property Value: £147,203.00.

Total Assets: £523,926.27. 

Debts

Residential Mortgage: £173,839.73. 

BTL Mortgage: £104,918.52.

Total Debts: £278,758.25. 

Total Wealth: £245,168.02.

Investment Income in 2023: £624.38 (target £10,000).

Stock prices have been going a little crazy again this week and we’re in that lull between payday and the start of the following month when the mortgage payment is applied to our residential mortgage.  Then, it’s the usual timetable of different payments from investments dropping into my account.  We’ve now received our final rent payment on the BTL and our tenants will be moving out in a couple of weeks.  It will be good to get the property sold and to exit the market.  I just hope that we don’t have any issues with agents or solicitors on our side, or the side of the buyers.  

There are so many examples of businesses just not reading the room, so to speak, when it comes to how they treat customers and their employees.  I’ve spoken with several friends, family, and acquaintances recently who have all expressed similar dissatisfaction with their work-life balance, the daily grind and monotonous routine of “adulting”, and the lack of fulfilment they get from their work.  We’ve somehow arrived at a point, as a society, where the simple act of existing is exhausting and expensive.  

Back in the day, a typical middle-class family (huge generalisation alert) would be a couple, kids, and maybe a dog or cat.  There would be one income, with the other adult taking on the bulk of the household jobs.  This couple would be able to get by, and not have to stress too much about money.  Granted, stress is part of the human condition, but this family dynamic was relatively normal.

In 2024 you can have a couple earning “average” salaries, and they can barely afford to save anything, or afford luxuries.  Consumer debt is major drain on monthly salaries, which just exacerbates the problem; life is just too expensive.  More and more people, at least in my experience, are expressing frustration with the way we do things.  I’m also finding that FIRE, or just FI, is becoming a term that is starting to gain mainstream recognition.  When I started this blog, almost no one had heard of the term.  Now, there’s a good chance that someone I mention it to will have some familiarity with it.

I’ve said if before, but it is worth repeating; FIRE is not about money.  Money is simply the tool.  The point of FIRE is freedom, and time.  It’s about having the freedom and the time to do what matters to you personally.  I’m not one who believes in woo-woo spiritual bullshit, but I firmly believe that our current culture and society is bad for our mental health.  If we are struggling with our mental health, we put that same negativity out there in the world.  I’m not talking about karma or other mystical nonsense.  I’m talking about the little boost you get when the person making your coffee hands it to you with a smile, instead of a grunt.  Or infectious positivity that can spread organically when people are on the same wavelength striving for a shared goal.  It’s not something that can be forced.  It has to grow naturally.  Our whole way of life just doesn’t allow for this, and it’s why myself and many other FIRE enthusiasts want to get off this hamster wheel and start living life, rather than just going through the motions of “adulting”.

That’s all for this week.  If you enjoyed this post, please remember to like, comment, and share.  You can also subscribe to the mailing list.  Donations to the running costs of the site are also gratefully accepted.

Disclaimer

The views and opinions in this blog are my own, and do not represent the views or opinions of my employer, nor should they be considered advice.

If you want personalised financial advice, seek an appropriate professional.  If you are in financial difficulty, seek advice via the resources below:

StepChange

MoneyHelper

Biolink and other links

You can now find all my social media pages by checking out my Biolink:

bio.link/davidscothern.

Click here to donate to the costs of running Mortgage Advisor on FIRE

Part 221

Hello and welcome back to Mortgage Advisor on FIRE.  This week I discuss a blog post criticising FIRE.  Also, a look back at a fun time at a cat cafe.    

Weekly Update

This week I worked Monday to Thursday on my last set of late shifts, and apart from Monday and Tuesday this coming week, I should not have to work beyond 6pm again.  It’s a nice feeling because there is something exhausting about working until 8pm.  I appreciate some people prefer working later in the day, but I’m not one of them.  I will miss the long weekends though, because on the late week in my old schedule, I would get Friday, Saturday, and Sunday off.  

This Friday Oana and I booked a slot at Tabby Teas Cat Cafe.  It’s a great little place with lots of cats, good coffee, and tasty cakes.  The cats are all really sweet and playful, and it’s definitely our sort of place.  We had an amazing time, and then went for tacos at Street Food Chef.  It was a nice, fairly chill, day.

The orange cat is Olaf, who I am crazy about. He’s great. For the first time he let me pet him and he was really affectionate. The white and black cat is Gomez who Oana is in love with. The white cat in the basket is Ziggy, who is missing one of his back legs, but he doesn’t let it get him down. Frida is the pretty lady on the scratching bed, and the fellow high up on the bed is Schnitzel, who has the most amazing chompers which you can see when he lifts his chin up. 

The staff bring around bits of chicken which we can feed the cats, and it was so nice having them come up and take the food from your hand, feeling their teeth on your fingers. They’re so gentle, but very greedy.

I can’t post all these photos of cats without giving our Poppy a shoutout. 

On Saturday we had my Dad over for some food.  We had bought a turkey joint in the post-Christmas sales which we froze to save for later.  Well, now it’s later.  We had it with some crushed potatoes, peas, Yorkshire puddings, and some carrots that I made.  I peeled them and then cut them lengthways.  I popped them in an oven dish and drizzled with olive oil, and mixed the carrots around to make sure they were fully coated.  I then drizzled them with honey, and seasoned with salt and a little paprika.  I roasted them for around 45 minutes, and I dare say that no one has ever made carrots as good as these.  It’s not even close.

Sunday is going to be a busy day as we have a meal planned with my Mom and her husband.  We also need to go to Ikea which is always an experience.  

Questions that need answering…

One of my pet hates is being asked the same question over and over.  My answer will not change based on the number of times I’m asked something.  It’s frustrating.  For example; being asked over and over again if you want a drink.  “Are you sure?”, “Just one?”

Related to this, and it might be a neurotypical thing, or it might just be stupidity, is when someone listens to your question, decides they don’t want to answer your question, and instead rewords the question to something more palatable, before answering that question.  There are times when I’ll ask a question, where the inspiration for the question might not be immediately obvious.  In those cases, rather than asking for clarification (which is fine) you shouldn’t just answer the question you have decided I’m asking.  

For example, take the question; “are you going to be long getting ready?”  Assume that I’m asking this question in a neutral, relaxed voice.  What’s the first thing you think?  Do you think I’m rushing you? Do you think I’m impatient?

Generally, when I ask this question, it’s because I’m working out how much time I have to be able to do something before you are ready.  If you’re going to be two minutes I know I can’t do much, but if you’re going to be ten minutes, then I might just sit down and read a few pages.  

Related to all this is when I ask someone a closed question, and their reply starts, “well…” 

No.  Just no.  I don’t need a monologue here; just a simple yes or no.  

For example, if you ask me, “Do you want pizza or tacos?” the only acceptable answer is “yes”.

Mortgage Advisor on FIRE – Wishlist

If you would like to show your support, please consider donating to my virtual tip jar at my page on Buy Me A Coffee.  You can use the link below, or click on the picture to be taken to my supporter page where you can see my wishlist.  

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Thanks, as always, for your interest and support.

What Am I Doing?

TV: Lord of the Rings trilogy (extended editions).

Audiobook: The Matter of Everything by Suzie Sheehy.

It’s been a while since we last watched the Lord of the Rings trilogy and, except for some CGI, they’ve aged pretty well.  When the films first came out my friends and I watched them at the cinema an embarrassing number of times.  We watched the first film, The Fellowship of the Ring, eight times at the cinema.  The next two films were also watched several times on the big screen.  I might have to go back and do the books again, as it’s been at least a decade since I last read them.

I’ve been enjoying reading and listening to books on science recently.  This book is not grabbing me though.  I’ll be happy to finish it and move on to something else.  On the face of it, it should be great as it focuses on twelve experiments that changed the world.  There’s just something about the style and delivery I can’t get on with.  

Financial Update

Assets

Premium Bonds: £13,150.00. 

Stocks and Shares ISA: £59,189.45. 

Fuck It Fund: £6,000.00.

Pensions: £68,579.73. 

Residential Property Value: £228,116.00. 

BTL Property Value: £147,203.00.

Total Assets: £522,238.18. 

Debts

Residential Mortgage: £173,839.73. 

BTL Mortgage: £104,918.52.

Total Debts: £278,758.25. 

Total Wealth: £243,479.93.

Investment Income in 2023: £559.38 (target £10,000).

Some sectors of the stock market have taken a bit of a pasting in the last couple of weeks, and this is reflected in the balance of my ISA and pensions.  Also, I’ve had to dip into my Fuck It Fund as it will be some time before Oana starts her new job.  In the meantime, I’m taking on the lion’s share of our financial commitments.  Once her job starts we will be able to replenish our savings though.

Another added benefit to Oana starting in her new job is that we’ll be able to look at interest only on our mortgage.  We can then start targeting the specific parts of our mortgage debt that have the higher rates of interest first whilst leaving the parts with lower rates on interest only.  We will not have this mortgage forever.  The likelihood is that it will be paid off within the next 10-15 years, but by selectively paying off parts of the mortgage debt in this way, we will reduce the amount of interest we pay back overall.

I doubt we will ever get rid of this apartment.  I’ve mentioned before about our area being voted as one of the best places in the world to live in Time Out, as well as being included in numerous lists of the best places to live in the UK.  We bought our apartment just before the regeneration of this area took off, and we fell so lucky with the timing.  I think the shine will wear off slightly in the coming years because I fear the area is becoming too crowded.  There are only so many houses and apartment buildings you can cram into an old industrial part of Sheffield, and parking spaces are like gold dust.

It’s not that long now until our BTL tenants move out, at which point we have some practicalities to sort out, like an inspection, returning any deposit monies to the tenants, addressing any repair work that needs completing, and then the house will be going up for sale.  

Fancy getting annoyed?

When you receive this message along with a link to a blog, you know you’re in for a wild ride.

I was sent a link to a blog that, if I’m being polite, was less than complimentary towards the FIRE movement.  I’m not going to share the blog because I don’t want to give them any sort of promotion but their nonsensical ramblings amount to this;

  1. I don’t like having nothing to do.
  2. People who want to quit work so they can choose what to do with their own time are lazy.
  3. Based on the previous two points, FIRE is the stupidest thing the blogger has ever heard.

This whole argument is just flawed for one simple reason, and it’s the point some religious extremists use; “I don’t like this, therefore you can’t do it.”

No, that’s not how life works. 

Most people who are pursuing FIRE are far from being lazy.  They are generally intelligent, driven, passionate people.  They feel restricted by work that they feel is unfulfilling.  They crave other challenges and experiences.  FIRE followers are amongst some of the busiest people I know.  The thing that critics miss is that FIRE is actually two separate concepts; FI and RE.  What most people are after is FI, with the idea that RE will follow at some point. 

If I were to hit FI tomorrow, I wouldn’t just not work anymore, ever again.  I would devote more time to studying the sciences, and perhaps follow a path in astronomy.  I could do this knowing that my financial security no longer depended on working.  FI is about having time and freedom to choose.  

The blogger made a point that if everyone followed FIRE then the economy would collapse.  Isn’t that true of anything though?  If everyone suddenly decided to only buy food from one brand of supermarket, wouldn’t that have the knock-on impact of collapsing the economy?  If everyone suddenly decided to stop using cards for buying things, and instead reverted to cash, wouldn’t that cripple the economy?

That’s all for this week.  Thanks for reading, and I hope you have a great week ahead.

Disclaimer

The views and opinions in this blog are my own, and do not represent the views or opinions of my employer, nor should they be considered advice.

If you want personalised financial advice, seek an appropriate professional.  If you are in financial difficulty, seek advice via the resources below:

StepChange

MoneyHelper

Biolink and other links

You can now find all my social media pages by checking out my Biolink:

bio.link/davidscothern.

Also, check out Darren Scothern’s blog which talks about autism, being autistic, and general mental health:

www.darrenscothern.com

If you want to show your support for my FIRE blog, please Buy Me A Coffee at the link below: 

https://www.buymeacoffee.com/davidscothern

Part 220

Hello and welcome back to Mortgage Advisor on FIRE.  This week I discuss some major updates with our BTL.  Also, an eventful week for our household.

Weekly Update

Life is starting to return back to the normal routine post-Christmas and New Year.  I still have the same bullshit of typing 2023, only to have to change it to 2024, to contend with but that should stop sometime around Easter.

The start of the week did not go to plan.  We were prepping some food and Oana sliced through the tip of her finger.  A fraction further and she could have taken the tip off completely.  It was bleeding pretty heavily with a constant stream of blood coming out.  We got it cleaned and bandaged up as best we could and got an Uber to the Minor Injuries Unit only to find it was closed due to the strike action (that we had completely forgotten about).  

On the way to MIU the following conversation took place:

Me: can I point out something really unhelpful?

Oana: do you have to?

Me: …

Oana: …

Me: we bought a safety glove to use when chopping for this reason.

Oana: … *angry stare*

Me: …

Oana: *anger intensifies*

Me: why didn’t you use it?

There was a notice up stating that the A&E department was still open, but that department is at the other NHS hospital at the other side of the city.  So, we booked another Uber and waited as drivers accepted our booking and then cancelled.

By the time we got in an Uber and were en route to the hospital, it appeared that the bleeding has subsided.  Oana really didn’t want to go to hospital, so we asked the driver to drop us back at home instead.  We had to change the dressing a few times but the finger appears to be healing, although it will probably leave a scar.  

It’s not all been bad news though as Oana has been offered a job working alongside me as a Mortgage Advisor.  Our household now has twice the number of mortgage advisors, and if we can somehow get Poppy CeMAP qualified we will be the Three Mortgageateers.  After all, you can’t spell homeowner without “meow”.  

Long time readers will know of my fascination with astronomy, physics, sci-fi, and all that stuff.  One of the items on my bucket list is to study astronomy formally, and I spent a bit of time researching possible degrees.  In a way, I’m itching to do something different but I know that I just don’t have the mental capacity to deal with that, and work, and writing this blog, and all the day-to-day adulting that is required to simply exist.  

Diving back into education may just have to wait until I’ve built a stronger financial foundation.  

On Saturday evening Oana and I went for a meal with my Dad, and we all enjoyed the food and the company.  The restaurant was very busy though with several large groups seated around us.  It drained our collective social battery a little, but it was still a great night.  

HOW IT STARTED
HOW IT FINISHED

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What Am I Doing?

TV: The Monsterverse

Audiobook: A Brief History of Black Holes by Dr Becky Smethurst. 

We have now finished the Apple TV series, Monarch: Legacy of Monsters, and I have to say I really enjoyed it.  I wasn’t expecting a huge amount going in, but it does pack a bit of an emotional punch.  The common issue with any story involving giant monsters, or Transformers, is that the people end up being really annoying when all you want to see is action and destruction.  I think this show managed, for the most part, to tell a compelling story that involved a trio of people against a backdrop of monsters.  Also, for a small screen production, the effects were great; better than some of the recent MCU offerings on the big screen.  

I have just finished another astronomy book, A Brief History of Black Holes, and thoroughly enjoyed it.  Dr Smethurst has a fun, engaging, style and her book taught me a few new things about black holes, including the fact that black holes were named after the infamous prison in India; The Black Hole of Calcutta.  Black holes are fascinating to think about though, and the scale of them is difficult to comprehend.  I would highly recommend this book to anyone with an interest in space, physics, or even science in general. 

Financial Update

Assets

Premium Bonds: £12,150.00. 

Stocks and Shares ISA: £60,843.11. 

Fuck It Fund: £11,040.00.

Pensions: £69,099.50. 

Residential Property Value: £228,116.00. 

BTL Property Value: £147,203.00.

Total Assets: £528,451.61. 

Debts

Residential Mortgage: £173,839.73. 

BTL Mortgage: £104,918.52.

Total Debts: £278,758.25. 

Total Wealth: £249,693.36.

Investment Income in 2023: £100.00 (target £10,000).

Some banking stocks took a bit of a beating this week, probably due to the news that the FCA is investigating whether consumers have been charged too much interest on car loans.  Financial communicator Martin Lewis released a statement suggesting millions of pounds could be paid out in compensation.  It will be interesting to see how this story develops.  

BTL Update

Earlier this week I spoke with our managing agent to see if they thought our tenants would be interested in buying the property.  She went away to discuss with the tenants, and they’ve decided to serve notice that they will leave the property in a month.  This is probably the best outcome we could have hoped for if they were not going to buy the property from us.  It’s not a nice feeling having to sell the property when there are people living there, but it’s all part of the business.  We didn’t just decide to sell on a whim.  It’s the culmination of our previous tenants causing thousands of pounds of damage, and interest rates sky rocketing due to the incompetent management of the economy by the Tory government.  Our interest rate is coming to an end next year, and we’re looking at an increase from 2.3% to more than double that.  After management fees, tax, insurance, and mortgage payments, we would be losing money on this property.  As much as it sucks to have to tell tenants we’re looking to sell, it’s also not right to expect a private landlord to subsidise a stranger’s home.  

As soon as they move out we will complete an inspection, and arrange for any cosmetic work to be carried out before putting the house on the market.  It will be a relief to have this property sold.  Accounting for CGT, fees, early repayment charges on the mortgage, and the other associated costs, we should make a small profit on the sale assuming it goes for roughly the average recent sale values in that area.  

On the subject of property valuations, it’s that time of the year when the valuation our lender holds for our properties updates.  This latest change has seen an increase of approximately a quarter of a percent.  I can’t really say anything about that other than it’s a tiny increase and doesn’t impact anything for us in any significant way.  

If we can secure a sale on the property before the end of this financial year, I’ll be delighted.  The lender’s valuation seems low compared to sale prices in the area, and according to what our agent thinks.  

It’s strange how my opinion on BTL property has changed over the years.  I still think it can work, and it could have worked for us, but the key with property is that you need to scale it up.  Having one property carries too much risk; if something happens to it, or you have bad tenants, then it’s the entirety of your portfolio that’s impacted.  If you have four properties, then they act as a safety net for each other.  We wanted to scale it up, but the combined impacts of Covid and the surge in interest rates made it too difficult.  

That’s all for this week.  I hope you have a great week ahead, and thank you for reading.

Disclaimer

The views and opinions in this blog are my own, and do not represent the views or opinions of my employer, nor should they be considered advice.

If you want personalised financial advice, seek an appropriate professional.  If you are in financial difficulty, seek advice via the resources below:

StepChange

MoneyHelper

Biolink and other links

You can now find all my social media pages by checking out my Biolink:

bio.link/davidscothern

Also, check out Darren Scothern’s blog which talks about autism, being autistic, and general mental health:

www.darrenscothern.com

If you want to show your support for my FIRE blog, please Buy Me A Coffee at the link below: 

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Part 219

Hello and welcome back to Mortgage Advisor on FIRE.  A short post this week where I look back at the new year.  Also, the first set of financial figures for 2024 starting with a Premium Bonds win.

Weekly Update

A short week of work following the new year, and now we are pretty much back to normal.  I hope you had a good New Year’s Eve, and that the coming year is happy and successful for you.  We spent NYE in a fairly low-key way.  Oana, my Dad, and I went for some lunch, and then watched a movie in the early evening.  It was then just a quiet night at home with Poppy.  We don’t generally do much for the new year, and the fireworks scare Pops, so we like to stay with her and make sure she’s ok.  

I don’t understand the appeal of fireworks.  Huge displays can look cool, and I remember seeing a great display over Niagara Falls in 2017, but it’s the light that is spectacular – not the sound.  Silent fireworks are available, and it would be so much better for the wildlife if we just had these as standard.  The fireworks that the average person can buy from a shop are, for the most part, rubbish anyway.  If it was up to me, I’d ban the public sale of fireworks, and for large displays only silent ones would be allowed.  

Oana had an interview for a job this week, which we are hopeful she will be offered the position. If she gets the job it will put us in a strong financial position moving forward, which may accelerate our FIRE plans. If she doesn’t get the job, I’m sure something else will come along.

On Saturday Oana and I went out for lunch before braving Ikea and some other shops at the retail park near Meadowhall.  Even with the shops being busy, it was a nice afternoon.  Once we got home we spent plenty of time fussing Poppy and playing with her.  Since we adopted Pops we’ve bought her so many toys, beds, scratching posts, and a cat tree, none of which she has used.  A cushion on the sofa though? Or a cushion on a desk?  She’s all over that.  As for playing, it’s all about long pieces of string that she can chase after.  She is such a goofy cat, and she’s started stealing my seat whenever I stand up.

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What Am I Doing?

TV: Monarch: Legacy of Monsters (Apple)

Audiobook: 50 Great Myths of Popular Psychology.

I love kaiju stories and the Monsterverse that was created a few years ago has been great fun.  The latest installment is the Apple TV show Monarch: Legacy of Monsters, which takes place across different time periods.  The show isn’t perfect and there are more than a couple of instances in the plot where I’ve thought “that’s convenient”.  For something on TV the monster effects are great, but there are a few scenes where the CGI background is obvious.  One thing I do like in the show is that they’ve cast Kurt Russell and his son, Wyatt, to play the same character at different ages.  It adds a little something extra when you feel like you’re actually seeing the same person at different points in their life.  

All of this raised an interesting question; would you want to live in a world where kaiju, like Godzilla, exist?  On one hand it would be incredible to see creatures like that, but it would also be absolutely terrifying at the same time.  Would the discovery, and threat, of these creatures lead to scientific discoveries?  Would those discoveries be enough to offset the occasional widespread death and destruction? It would need to be something pretty special to counteract periodic kaiju attacks.

Financial Update

Assets

Premium Bonds: £12,100.00. 

Stocks and Shares ISA: £62,295.66. 

Fuck It Fund: £11,000.00.

Pensions: £68,474.20. 

Residential Property Value: £227,512.00. 

BTL Property Value: £146,814.00.

Total Assets: £528,195.86. 

Debts

Residential Mortgage: £173,839.73. 

BTL Mortgage: £104,918.52.

Total Debts: £278,758.25. 

Total Wealth: £249,437.61.

Investment Income in 2023: £100.00 (target £10,000).

The new year started with a £100 win on the Premium Bonds, which brings my winnings to approximately £1,300 since the start of 2019.  It’s not an amazing return, but for a long time it was much better than leaving the money in a savings account paying 0.5% interest.  

By the time of the next update I would expect to have updated figures for the estimated value of my apartment and BTL.  Once we have a figure for what the BTL may be worth, we are going to speak with our letting agent and see what they think we could sell for.  Then, we’ll have a decision to make.  

This month also sees the reduction in national insurance take effect, which should add a little extra to my take home pay.  It’s not life changing amounts but it’s still better off in my bank account.

It’s felt for a while that my ability to save regularly has been impacted by the cost of everything else increasing.  I think we’re starting to see that pressure easing though.  Oana and I have adapted some of our routines to reduce our expenditure, and it’s starting to make a difference.  We are much more mindful about water and electricity use, and with how we plan our meals in advance.  All that being said, it’s still harder to save than it used to be.  Earlier in this FIRE journey I was able to invest over 50% of my net salary.  The figure now is closer to 15%.  There’s only so much that can be cut out though, and we still want to enjoy life as much as possible in the here and now.  

That’s all for this week.  I hope you have a great week ahead – thank you for reading.

Disclaimer

The views and opinions in this blog are my own, and do not represent the views or opinions of my employer, nor should they be considered advice.

If you want personalised financial advice, seek an appropriate professional.  If you are in financial difficulty, seek advice via the resources below:

StepChange

MoneyHelper

Biolink and other links

You can now find all my social media pages by checking out my Biolink:

bio.link/davidscothern.

Also, check out Darren Scothern’s blog which talks about autism, being autistic, and general mental health:

www.darrenscothern.com

If you want to show your support for my FIRE blog, please Buy Me A Coffee at the link below: 

https://www.buymeacoffee.com/davidscothern

Part 218 – 2023 Review

Hello and welcome back to Mortgage Advisor on FIRE.  This week I take a look back at 2023, and a look ahead to 2024, with an update on what we did over Christmas.

Weekly Update

Another Christmas has been and gone, and this year’s was great.  Oana and I hosted my parents; it was the first time I’d spent Christmas Day with my Mom and Dad together since I was a little kid.  It was, also, only the second time that the four of us had been together, with the previous occasion being on my 40th birthday earlier this year.

We sat around chatting and with some chilled-out music, and the food preparation was mostly done the day before.  Our menu was hugely stripped back.  We had a turkey joint wrapped in bacon, with a cranberry stuffing.  We made a huge pot of mashed potato the day before and reheated it on the day.  We had some peas, some Yorkshires, and turkey gravy.  For dessert, we made orange, honey, and pistachio possets, served with shortbread biscuits.

Oana, coming from Romania, has a different experience of Christmas.  Her family would normally celebrate on the 24th, saving the 25th for a chill-out day to recover.  The traditional food at Christmas in Romania is also different.  It’s not really about turkey, and instead, it is all about pork.  Pigs are butchered and the idea is to use as much of the animal as possible to make all sorts of dishes, including soups, stews, sausages, sarmale (minced pork wrapped in cabbage, normally served with creme fraiche – it’s delicious), and other bits and pieces.  

As we live in an apartment, butchering a whole pig would present certain logistical challenges, and instead, Oana opted for one of her favourite meals; lemon and basil chicken with mashed potato.  We bought ten chicken breasts and left them marinating in olive oil, freshly squeezed lemon juice, and fresh basil from the morning of the 24th, and then cooked it on the 25th.  This lemon chicken is one of my favourite meals, so we had plenty left over, and we had the final portion on the 28th.

It’s felt like every meal since Christmas Day has been some variety of poultry and potato, but that’s what we like.  

Anyway, back to Christmas Day, once we’d eaten our mains we played a game that Oana and I came up with.  We came up with a list of stupid questions (some taken from the internet, and some we made up ourselves) and each person had to take turns picking a random question and then answering it.  The game was great fun but did cause some debate, especially around what was the largest animal we felt we could take on in a fight to the death.  I feel reasonably sure I could just about take down a tortoise.  I shared the questions with some friends, and we compared notes and the variety of animals that people think they could take on ranges from wolves, to whales (assuming they are beached) to goats.  I’ll stick to my choice of tortoise.

Another question that caused a lot of laughs was, “If you had to hide a giraffe from the government, where would you hide it?”  I argued I would hide it in plain sight; I pop a lead on it and tell people it’s a dog.  I would refuse to acknowledge any other truth; this long-necked mf’er identifies as a dog, and that’s the end of it.  The question, “What would make you vote Tory?” was met with blank expressions; such a reality was beyond comprehension.  

Once Christmas is out of the way it’s just a weird time as we wait for the new year, which brings me nicely to my New Year’s Resolutions/2024 Goals.

Goals for 2024

Most of my goals are, unsurprisingly, finance-related.  

Goal #1 – Increase Fuck It Fund to £15,000.

Goal #2 – Increase Premium Bonds to £15,000.

Both of the above goals are within my power to achieve because they’re not subject to market movements like my ISA and pension are.  Once at £15,000 I’ll feel as though I’ve got a decent buffer with roughly two years of normal living expenses saved.

Goal #3 – Max out my ISA allowance (£20,000 – unless this changes with the rumoured budget in March).

Another goal that is within my power, but will be a big ask with less money available for investing.  Still, I’ll give it a good go.  

Goal #4 – Sell my BTL.

Goal #5 – Reduce mortgage on our apartment to £165,000.

Goal #6 – £10,000 investment income for 2024.

Yearly Update

It’s been an eventful year with some major highs and some truly awful lows.  There have been years in my life that have been rubbish, just like everyone else.  2023 is a year that I will not be sorry to see end.  My mental health took an absolute beating which started around May, I think.  By the start of July, I felt like I was losing my mind.  It was the worst feeling of despair I’ve ever experienced.  Thankfully that seems to be behind me and I feel as though I’m on an upward swing.  

In addition to struggling with my mental health, I’ve had repeated admissions to the hospital, multiple operations, investigations, scans, and other uncomfortable tests.  The year started with two operations to deal with kidney stones, which was painful, to say the least.  I had three breath tests which involved restricted diets and several hours at the hospital for each test.  There have been scans, more blood tests than I can count, lots of physio, and multiple issues with my medication.  It’s been stressful.  

Anyway, enough of the negatives and on to the year’s highlights.

March was a great month as we attended several events, like a Dara O Briain show, some excellent theatre in The Good Person of Szechuan, and The Great Gatsby ballet.

We also attended some interesting talks at the annual Off The Shelf festival, including talks with Richard Armitage, and another with Ian Dunt.  We also went to a fantastic talk about villains and pranksters, called In the Realm of the Dark Rabbit.  

2023 also saw a couple of great holidays, with a two-week cruise around Norway which included a voyage into the Arctic Circle.  We also returned to Malta where I spent my 40th birthday.  In addition to these foreign trips we spent a weekend in London to see Norwegian DJ, Kygo, in a fantastic concert.  It was a brilliant night but the trip back across London took hours because we’re stupid.  

Best of 2023

So this is a selection of what I’ve most enjoyed this year, not necessarily what has been released this year. 

Movies: John Wick 4

I’m not generally one for movies any more.  I enjoy a good TV show, but my entertainment now comes from books, audiobooks, and podcasts.  I will make an exception for John Wick 4 though.  It was brilliant.  No one can ever really claim that these movies are serious affairs; they are just great fun, and the fourth entry was arguably the best one yet.

Books: The Man I Think I Know (Mike Gayle), All The Lonely People (Mike Gayle), The Black Fleet series (Joshua Dalzelle).

I discovered Mike Gayle a little before heading on our cruise around Norway.  I will often just pick a book at random based on what comes up on Audible, and sometimes it leads me to discover gold.  Mike Gayle writes stories with heart, emotion, humour, and characters that feel real.  The Man I Think I Know was the first book of his I finished, but I followed that up with three more of his books.  All The Lonely People was brilliant, packing a huge emotional punch.  

The Black Fleet series was another one I just tried on a whim.  It’s set in the future where humanity has colonised space, and the captain of an aging destroyer encounters a hostile alien ship.  What follows is an action-packed story with some inventive and exciting battles, which try as much as possible to be respectful of physics with things like momentum, fuel, ammunition, and light delay being important factors in each battle.  The series is made up of three trilogies; nine books in total.  I really enjoyed it, even if it was a bit cheesy in parts.  

TV: The Crown, Taco Chronicles, Vortex, The Boys, Star Trek: Picard, Queen’s Gambit, The Seven Lives of Lea, Three-Body Problem (Chinese version).

I’ve seen a lot of good TV this year, with the final season of The Crown dropping, and the final season of Picard bringing back the Enterprise-D in scenes which will have been emotional for any Trek fan in my age bracket.  The highlight of Picard has to be Todd Stashwick’s portrayal of Captain Liam Shaw, a survivor of the Battle of Wolf 359. 

The most memorable scene was Shaw describing how he survived the battle, which gave a real insight into why he was so hostile towards Picard.  It’s not often you see such raw emotion on screen, and it was one of those moments where the actor became the character.  What made Shaw great was that he didn’t give a shit about the legendary status of the main characters such as Picard or Riker; he was a collection of one-liners, wisecracks, and misanthropy all rolled up, and was, in his own words, “just a dipshit from Chicago”.

The final season of The Crown was possibly the weakest yet, but even at its weakest, The Crown is better than most of what is on TV.  I’m as anti-royal as anyone, but as a work of fiction, I really enjoyed it.

2023 also saw the release of season one of The Three-Body Problem; one of my favourite book series of all time (the book series is actually called Remembrance of Earth’s Past, and contains three main novels, and a couple of other works, but most people just refer to the series as Three-Body or The Three-Body Problem).  This version was the Chinese adaptation (there’s a Netflix version being butchered by the guys who managed to ruin Game of Thrones due for release in 2024).  The Chinese version had 30 lengthy episodes, and it was refreshing to see a different style of television.  The Netflix version is probably going to try and cram the whole plot into 12 episodes, and will no doubt dumb down much of the plot.  We were able to watch the show for free on YouTube from the studio’s official channel.  I can’t wait for season two, as the second book in the series, The Dark Forest, blew my mind.  

I’ve watched a few non-English shows in the past and enjoyed them, but I’ve never really watched too much French stuff.  This year I came across two excellent French shows; Vortex, and The Seven Lives of Lea, both of which deal with similar(ish) themes of time travel and trying to undo past events.  

I asked Oana to list some of her favourite shows of 2023, and she’s typed up some thoughts which I’ve included below:

Triptych – Spanish – interesting plot re a woman that gets cloned multiple times and comes to terms with her different ‘lives’ and how her and her ‘sisters’ connect. Also, big crush on Maite Perroni especially after watching Deseo Oscuro. 

In Love All Over Again – Spanish – fun little show about two university students falling in love and all their shenanigans along the way. Have seen Georgina Amoros in a few things and I like her, and it was interesting to see Argentinian actor Franco Masini in a show based in Madrid, they had good chemistry. 

Sky High – Spanish – slightly cheap acting and tacky action but very moreish and fun to watch. If you’re into cars and racing (which I’m generally not!) then this could be for you. Mainly went for it as am a fan of Alvaro Rico and Miguel Herran. 

The Glory – Korean – very harrowing and soul-destroying show highlighting the bullying culture in schools in South Korea. Very powerful, and satisfying to watch as the main character plots her lifelong revenge against her aggressors. Would recommend, but be prepared for some brutally graphic scenes. 

Maestro in Blue – Greek – a relaxing summer getaway show, lots of drama, stunning scenery. Klelia Andriolatou is also mega cute. Refreshing to watch something in Greek for a change, am hoping they do more seasons! 

The Kingdom – Argentinian – very strong show, along the lines of a religious style House of Cards. Very well acted and very much enjoyed it, would recommend, deffo one to watch. 

El Marginal – Argentinian – another epic, gritty show about life inside Argentina’s prisons. Some excellent acting especially from Nicolas Furtado, the relationship in the show with Claudio Rissi is so heartwarming and fun to watch. Highly recommend, this is one I will definitely go back and watch again at some point. 

The Marked Heart – Mexican – typical telenovela drama, which I am happy to admit I love. Interesting concept about a man arranging to kill another man’s wife in order to steal her heart when his own wife is close to death and is unable to get what she needs from the donor list. A fresh take on telenovelas and some decent acting, too. 

Welcome to Eden – Spanish – as I am familiar with most of the cast (Begona Vargas, Amaia Salamanca, Nona Sobo, Alex Pastrana, Tomas Aguilera, Sergio Momo) this was obviously going to be something I would watch. Enjoyed the ‘Black Mirror’ style plot, the colours of the show, and the overall modernised concept of a sort of ‘off-land cult’, good ending too. 

Valeria – Spanish – typically not my kind of show, bit too girly, but I kinda dig Diana Gomez and having seen Maxi Iglesias in a few things, I went for it. Quite sexual, very fun, good character building, and especially love the backdrop of life in Madrid. Based on biographical novels by Elisabet Benavent. 

Good Morning Veronica – Brazilian – tackling some pretty heavy religious topics such as sexual abuse, trafficking, corruption, etc. A different take on a detective story, and refreshing to hear Portugese being spoken as opposed to all the usual Spanish shows I watch. Based on a novel by Rafael Montes. 

The Witcher – English – I feel a bit cliche about this one, as Ciri is super annoying but have a soft spot for Henry Cavill ever since saw him in The Tudors. Some cheap acting, dumb monster ideas, and not very good effects, but the story is fun and keeps you on your toes. Also, Freya Allen is cute. 

Pact of Silence – Mexican – another typical bitchy telenovela, about a young woman who finds out she was abandoned as a baby and goes on a revenge rampage against those who were privvy to the fact. Fun to watch, quite emotional in parts, despite the not-so-good acting, but enjoyed it nonetheless.

Money Heist – one of THE best shows I’ve ever watched. Bank robbing topic aside, which I can understand isn’t entirely appealing, and shitty title translation from Casa de Papel (House of Paper) – the cast is immense, the character building is so so good, the twists and turns of the plot are so well written and leaves you feeling tense and wanting to know what happens next constantly. I am not ashamed to say even after watching it a second time, I bawled at some of the chracters’ deaths. The colour, filming, music choices, and symbolisism is just genius. I smashed all 5 parts and the 3 documentaries in less than a week. Cannot recommend enough!

Thank you to Oana for typing all that up.  She has been trying to get me to watch Money Heist, but I’m just not interested.  In the words of Captain Shaw:

Music: The Killers, Our Lady Peace, Coldplay, Billy Joel, Kygo, Imagine Dragons.

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Financial Update

Assets

Premium Bonds: £12,050.00. (down from £19,350 on 01/01/2023).

Stocks and Shares ISA: £62,723.40 (down from £63,591.10 on 01/01/2023).

Fuck It Fund: £10,780.68 (up from £0.00 on 01/01/2023).

Pensions: £69,308.09 (up from £55,104.02 on 01/01/2023). 

Residential Property Value: £227,512.00 (down from £233,989.00 on 01/01/2023).

BTL Property Value: £146,814.00 (down from £150,993.00 on 01/01/2023).

Total Assets: £527,573.93 (up from £523,027.12 on 01/01/2023).

Debts

Residential Mortgage: £174,247.55 (down from £180,028.08 on 01/01/2023).

BTL Mortgage: £104,924.60 (down from £105,101.46 on 01/01/2023).

Total Debts: £279,172.15 (down from £295,129.54 on 01/01/2023).

Total Wealth: £248,401.78 (up from £227,897.58 on 01/01/2023).

Investment Income in 2023: £8,307.53 (up from £5,685.20 in 2022) (target £8,500). 

It’s crazy how much my finances have changed over a single year.  There’s been a lot of moving money around to help deal with unexpected expenses, but overall it’s been a decent year; my assets are up, despite property prices falling, and my debts are down.  

I came so close to hitting my income goal, but it wasn’t to be.  Next year should be a strong year for income, even if I sell my BTL early on.  I’ve been accumulating units in funds that pay income, as well as interest rates on my Fuck It Fund increasing.  If I sell my BTL for a reasonable price, that money will be reinvested and earning income in other ways, so I’m optimistic about 2024.

I’ve said before that I’m in the middle part of my FIRE journey, and it just so happens to have coincided with a sustained period where the markets have been stagnant.  I feel that a decent foundation has been laid though, and that when the market does start to grow again I’ll see some spectacular gains.  The key now is to just follow the process and stick to the essential ground rules; spend less than I earn and invest the remainder.  

If you made it this far, in this longer post than normal, thank you for reading.  I hope you have a great New Year’s Eve, and a happy, healthy, and prosperous 2024.  

Disclaimer

The views and opinions in this blog are my own, and do not represent the views or opinions of my employer, nor should they be considered advice.

If you want personalised financial advice, seek an appropriate professional.  If you are in financial difficulty, seek advice via the resources below:

StepChange

MoneyHelper

Biolink and other links

You can now find all my social media pages by checking out my Biolink:

bio.link/davidscothern.

Also, check out Darren Scothern’s blog which talks about autism, being autistic, and general mental health:

www.darrenscothern.com

If you want to show your support for my FIRE blog, please Buy Me A Coffee at the link below: 

https://www.buymeacoffee.com/davidscothern

Part 217

Hello and welcome back to Mortgage Advisor on FIRE.  This week I look at a new all-time high for my Total Wealth, and I discuss Christmas as an autistic person.

Weekly Update

Thankfully my cold seems to have subsided without ever really being that severe.  For me, the worst thing about a cold is the constant runny nose, blurred vision, and sneezing, but this time it seemed to primarily just affect my throat, with headache and earache.  

As I’m typing this it is the afternoon of the 23rd December, or Christmas Eve Eve.  I’m not generally that bothered about Christmas, and in previous years I’ve been almost militant in not doing anything special.  I don’t like the commercial aspect of it, and I find a lot of traditions unnecessary and annoying.  I now realise that much of that is due to my neurodivergent nature; loud noises, busy environments, lots of socialising, changes to routine, and all the other associated stuff just stresses me out.  One of the worst years I can remember involved going to a family member’s house for the day.  These were family members I only saw rarely.  I had nothing in common with them.  It was painful.  The best years I remember tended to be pretty low-key affairs, involving just a few people, some good food, and some good TV, music, games, and books.  

If you know someone who is autistic please understand that they may not find the typical Christmas experience fun or relaxing.  Please don’t force any autistic person, be they adult or child, to socialise, eat/drink things they don’t want to, or take part in other games or activities that put them under stress.  Autistic people have enough to contend with in daily life, so just let them enjoy this time of year in the way they prefer.  What a neurotypical person enjoys and an autistic person enjoys may have very little if any, overlap. And now, for those who like funny Venn diagrams…

This year is going to follow our preferred format, although Oana and I have been stressing about getting the apartment ready for guests.  We are probably stressing about it a little too much, but we tend to set high standards for ourselves with this sort of thing.  I think we are both agreed that this will be the last time for a while that we host Christmas though.  It’s not just about hosting on the day, but planning the menu, getting all the ingredients, making sure guests are ok with the food being planned, getting the apartment in order, and so on, and so on.  It’s going to be worth it, and we’re looking forward to a great day, but the work ahead of time can be stressful.  Next year, we’re just going to make a curry!

Looking back at Christmas over the years, Oana and I have had some memorable ones.  One year we stayed up mega late on Christmas Eve and ended up not waking up on Christmas Day until about 6pm.  Another year we slept in, not quite as late, and then watched a whole season of True Blood in one go.  Then there was a year when I had an awful migraine and Oana had to do all the cooking.  Going back to when I was about 17 or 18, I had a break-up with my then-girlfriend on Christmas Eve and hardly slept.  I got out of bed at around 7am Christmas Day and started drinking bottles of Budweiser (don’t judge me, I was young) whilst watching Babylon 5.  Take away the bud, and spending the whole day watching B5 sounds pretty appealing, now I think about it.

The more I think about it, the more I realise that the biggest gripe I have with this time of year is the societal expectation.  People are told that they have to have a good time because it’s Christmas, and because it’s Christmas you should have a good time.  It’s circular reasoning.  I also hate excessive spending and consumption, and so much money is wasted on cards that are often binned, and gifts that are often packed away and eventually sent to a landfill.  Christmas for me is about spending time with the people I love, with good food and no demands on my time.  

I hope you have an enjoyable Christmas that you can spend in your preferred way.  

Christmas Presents

What’s the cheapest gift you’ve received as an adult, that’s not been a joke?  Well, one year Oana and I received a mug each that came with a spoon for eating soup.  Fair enough, a strange gift but whatever.  A few days later we were in Poundland for some reason or another, and we saw these mugs for sale.  £1.  The people who bought the gifts were not short of money, and it was definitely intended as an insult, but Oana and I just found it funny.  

How To Support Mortgage Advisor on FIRE 

If you would like to show your support, please consider donating to my virtual tip jar at my page on Buy Me A Coffee.  You can use the link below, or click on the picture to be taken to my supporter page.  

https://www.buymeacoffee.com/davidscothern

Alternatively, please consider sharing this blog on your social media.  Shares are the most valuable commodity for any blogger and the most difficult thing to earn.  

Thanks, as always, for your interest and support.

What Am I Doing?

TV:  Looking for a new show…

Audiobook: The Theory of Everything: The Quest to Explain All Reality by Prof. Don Lincoln.

I am fascinated by physics, astronomy, and all that stuff.  The more I learn, the more I realise I don’t know or understand, which just makes me want to learn more.  I think it was Richard Feynman who said, “if you think you understand quantum mechanics, you don’t understand quantum mechanics.”  How true that is…

Anyway, the book I’m listening to at the moment is from The Great Courses, who offer compilations of lectures on a given topic as an audiobook.  Prof. Lincoln worked on the team that discovered the Higgs-Boson, and the lectures have ranged from interesting, to confusing, to completely mindblowing.  Let me try to explain one of the concepts that just made my brain hurt.  All matter is made up of atoms, which are in turn made up of smaller particles.  Matter has mass.  Atoms have mass.  However, the quarks that make up the particles that makeup atoms only have mass that accounts for a tiny fraction of the overall mass of the object.  

So where does the mass come from?  If I’ve understood correctly the overwhelming majority of mass is energy.  Within an atom, the quarks are moving around so quickly, that the energy resembles mass.  Part of our understanding of physics is that mass and energy are two sides of the same coin, sort of.  Mass contains an incredible amount of energy, which is evidenced by the explosive impact of atomic weapons.  To better explain, I’ll quote Prof. Lincoln;

“The mass of ordinary matter is a consequence of QCD [quantum chromodynamics]. Most of the mass of humans isn’t “stuff” in the sense we ordinarily think of it. Our mass is really just caused by the total energy stored inside the subatomic tempests inside of us called protons and neutrons. Our mass—indeed, all of the mass that we’re familiar with—is just energy, governed by the laws of QCD.”

Financial Update

Assets

Premium Bonds: £12,000.00. 

Stocks and Shares ISA: £62,801.98. 

Fuck It Fund: £10,680.68.

Pensions: £67,765.27. 

Residential Property Value: £227,512.00. 

BTL Property Value: £146,814.00.

Total Assets: £527,573.93.

Debts

Residential Mortgage: £174,247.55. 

BTL Mortgage: £104,924.60.

Total Debts: £279,172.15. 

Total Wealth: £248,401.78.

Investment Income in 2023: £8,275.42 (target £8,500).

I’ve hit a new all-time high in my total wealth figure.  The previous high was back in Week 173 when my TWF stood at £248,356.99.  It’s a nice little boost to have surpassed that figure as we approach the end of 2023.  It feels as though this year has been all negative financially with little growth, high inflation, and interest rates increasing.  However, I think we are starting to see some signs for optimism.  Hopefully, the next couple of years will see steady gains in the stock market, with rates returning to some sort of stability.  

Except for one small payment, I’ve received all my expected investment income for 2023.  I’m now expecting the final figure to be approximately £8,310.  Again, for what feels like a bad financial year, this is good progress on the year before when I received £5,685.20.  

Looking ahead to 2024’s projected income raises some questions because I don’t know when we will sell the BTL or for how much.  We have a figure in mind that will allow us to walk away with some profit after paying all the fees and taxes.  My share of the profit will be reinvested, but the amount I have to reinvest will impact the amount of income that is generated for the rest of the year.  Based on the current situation, I’d be happy to simply match the 2023 figure.

Service Charges

You may remember that I discussed my apartment’s service charges and how they’ve increased over the last couple of years.  Well, we are now under a new management company and we’ve received our latest demand for service charges.  The good news is that they’ve reduced to something more reasonable.  This is a little bit of respite when everything else seems to be going up in price.  

That’s all for this week.  I hope you have a great Christmas and please check back next week for my review of 2023.  

Disclaimer

The views and opinions in this blog are my own, and do not represent the views or opinions of my employer, nor should they be considered advice.

If you want personalised financial advice, seek an appropriate professional.  If you are in financial difficulty, seek advice via the resources below:

StepChange

MoneyHelper

Biolink and other links

You can now find all my social media pages by checking out my Biolink:

bio.link/davidscothern.

Also, check out Darren Scothern’s blog which talks about autism, being autistic, and general mental health:

www.darrenscothern.com

If you want to show your support for my FIRE blog, please Buy Me A Coffee at the link below: 

https://www.buymeacoffee.com/davidscothern

Part 216

Hello and welcome back to Mortgage Advisor on FIRE.  Some positive developments in my mental and financial health.  Also, a look at tipsters trying to beat the market.  

Weekly Update

Last week wasn’t too bad overall.  I started with an appointment with my psychologist, and I continue to be impressed by her.  The techniques we are practising and changes to my medications are moving me in the right direction.  I also have to give a shout-out to my girlfriend, family, and friends for their constant support; thank you all.

This week Oana and I met up with a mutual friend for some Mexican food.  We had a good laugh, as we always do, and some excellent food at Street Food Chef.  We wanted to get dessert though, and we craved tiramisu.  We figured we’d try Pizza Express just up the road.  The restaurant was less than half full and we were seated quickly.  After being handed the dessert menu, and not being told of any unavailable items, we then waited almost half an hour for our order to be taken.  It was at that point we were told they sold out of tiramisu earlier in the afternoon.  If they’d just mentioned that when handing us the dessert menus it would have been better for everyone. 

The rest of the week has been spent getting things sorted for Christmas as we will be hosting dinner this year.  We still need to get some of the fresh ingredients but we plan on doing as much food prep and cooking in advance as possible.  

For the last week or so a few people close to me have been struggling with a nasty cold. I had managed to avoid it and was about to sigh in relief, but I can feel the early stages of it coming on. At least it should be done for Christmas, I hope.  For now, I’ve got a sore throat and headache.  In the best of British tradition, “there’s something going around.”

It’s that time of the year when I start thinking about the year ahead, and also look back at the year gone by.  2023 has been a year of real highs and some awful lows.  I thought 2020 was a bad year for my mental health, but there were times this year when I felt like I was actually losing my mind.  It was quite scary at times, and I had to shield a lot of it from people because I think it would have freaked them out.  But, now, I feel like I’m on something of an upward swing and can start looking ahead to 2024 with some small flashes of optimism.  I’m planning on a more detailed post reviewing this year and discussing my goals for next year, and it should go live on NYE.  

How To Support Mortgage Advisor on FIRE 

If you would like to show your support, please consider donating to my virtual tip jar at my page on Buy Me A Coffee.  You can use the link below, or click on the picture to be taken to my supporter page.  

https://www.buymeacoffee.com/davidscothern

Alternatively, please consider sharing this blog on your social media.  Shares are the most valuable commodity for any blogger and the most difficult thing to earn.  

Thanks, as always, for your interest and support.

What Am I Doing?

TV:  The Crown (Netflix).

Audiobook: One of Ten Billion Earths by Karel Schrijver (audible).

I am as anti-royal as they come, but I have enjoyed The Crown for what it is; essentially a work of fiction.  The last season was good, but I feel as though as the show has progressed it has felt increasingly rushed.  In terms of production values, there are few, if any, shows around that compete with The Crown.  Another thing I love about the show is the music, and how it elevates the story.  Bad music can detract from your enjoyment, whereas decent music just hangs around not drawing attention to itself.  Occasionally, though, you get a show that has a soundtrack that is simply perfect and it adds so much more to the experience.  The song on the soundtrack that everyone seems to agree is the best is Duck Shoot, so if you’ve not heard it I suggest you fire up your music player and search for it.

I’ve been enjoying my science books lately and I stumbled across a free download from the Audible Plus Catalogue; One of Ten Billion Earths, by Karel Schrijver.  Now, this guy is basically living my dream life.  He’s an astrophysicist who has worked on some incredible projects.  He spends his time writing, travelling, and hiking in nature.  He lives in Portland, OR, a city famed for its liberal attitudes, street food, and culture.  And, most importantly, he has a frickin’ German Shepherd dog.  Anyway, it’s an interesting book discussing the search for exoplanets, and how planetary systems form and develop. I’m not jealous at all. 

Financial Update

Assets

Premium Bonds: £11,625.00. 

Stocks and Shares ISA: £61,848.59. 

Fuck It Fund: £10,444.74.

Pensions: £67,849.47. 

Residential Property Value: £227,512.00. 

BTL Property Value: £146,814.00.

Total Assets: £526,093.80.

Debts

Residential Mortgage: £174,247.55. 

BTL Mortgage: £104,924.60.

Total Debts: £279,172.15. 

Total Wealth: £246,921.65.

Investment Income in 2023: £8,040.04 (target £8,500).

I won’t hit my investment income goal for the year, but I will get very close.  I still have a couple of more payments to hit my account before the end of the year, which should take me to around £8,300. Overall, I have to be happy with that.  

Coast FI and Lean FI

One thing I wanted to touch on is the realisation that I’m probably further on in my FIRE journey than I first thought.  I’m within touching distance of being able to coast through to retirement with the value I have in my pension pot.  Granted, it would not provide a luxurious retirement, but I don’t need luxury; I need peace.  Roughly speaking, my current pension pot growing at 6% with no further contributions should be worth approximately £200,000 in 18 years.  Using the 4% rule, it would provide an income of £8,000; not a huge amount, but enough to supplement other income streams like dividends and potential rental income on our apartment when we decide to move.  

Coming back to my pension pot for a moment, if I continue to pay into it for a further three years, and then let it coast for fifteen years, I’d be looking at a pot of over £270,000, resulting in an income of approx £10,800.  These are only projections but that’s all any of us have to work with when planning our financial future.

The main attraction of Coast FI is that I’ll have more freedom when choosing how and when I want to work.  I’ll only have to cover my living expenses whilst being able to let my investments grow in the background.  If I can get my ISA and pension pots to £100,000 each in the next 2-3 years I will be delighted.  If 2024 ends up being a bumper year, then I reach those goals even quicker.  

If you are reading this you are, in all likelihood, interested in FIRE.  I would guess that most of you have done some calculations or projections on your financial future, and there is nothing wrong with doing that; it’s a fundamental part of financial planning.  We can’t predict short-term trends, but we can say with a decent degree of confidence what the market may look like in 20-30 years.  

Anyway, a friend of mine, a fellow FIRE enthusiast and self-identified numbers geek, shared some articles from an investment advice website.  We couldn’t believe what we were reading as it was just one post after another rehashing the same clickbait bullshit, with claims that by investing a few hundred pounds a month they could have millions in just 20-30 years, with enough value to provide passive income of over £80,000.  

Now, let’s be generous and assume that you are aiming for £1m in 30 years from a standing start i.e. £0 in your investment pot.  Assuming a reasonable rate of growth, say 7%, you’d need to invest approx. £885 per month, every month, for 30 years.  That’s a tall order for most people, but not completely unrealistic.  However, when you hit that £1m goal, if you refer to FireCalc and run the simulation on the success rate of a withdrawal rate of 8%, you will run out of money 80% of the time within the next thirty years.  The person writing these posts seems to be suggesting that you could have a portfolio of stocks that pay a dividend of 8%-10% which would mean you’re not selling units to fund retirement.  

None of the individual factors mentioned, in isolation, are unrealistic.  They are extreme, but plausible when considered alone.  Someone could invest almost £900 per month, every month, for a prolonged period.  Someone may stumble upon a selection of stocks that pay a healthy dividend for a sustained period.  Someone may fall lucky with their timing and see gains to such an incredible rate that they can sustain an 8% withdrawal rate.  Expecting someone to fall lucky with all these factors in combination is like expecting to win the jackpot on the lottery several weeks on the spin.  It might happen to one person, but they would be the exception, not the rule, and it would be down to luck more than judgment or skill.  You can’t beat the market consistently over the long-term.  It just doesn’t happen.   

Disclaimer

The views and opinions in this blog are my own, and do not represent the views or opinions of my employer, nor should they be considered advice.

If you want personalised financial advice, seek an appropriate professional.  If you are in financial difficulty, seek advice via the resources below:

StepChange

MoneyHelper

Biolink and other links

You can now find all my social media pages by checking out my Biolink:

bio.link/davidscothern.

Also, check out Darren Scothern’s blog which talks about autism, being autistic, and general mental health:

www.darrenscothern.com

If you want to show your support for my FIRE blog, please Buy Me A Coffee at the link below: 

https://www.buymeacoffee.com/davidscothern