Part 275: The Mortgage, The Chatbot, and The Coffee

Hello and welcome back to Mortgage Advisor on FIRE.  This week I discuss technology and AI.  Also, some thoughts on repaying our mortgage, and a look ahead to my first week of a new job.    

Weekly Update

Have you ever heard the term PICNIC to describe issues with technology?  Well, it’s shorthand for Problem in Chair, Not in Computer.  Why am I talking about this?  It’s a long story…

A few months ago Oana and I bought a new smart TV.  Our old LG one was no longer as sharp or crisp in picture quality, so we decided to upgrade.  The new one is great and the picture quality compared to our old one is like comparing night and day.  The sound is excellent, and we’ve been able to download all the apps we want to watch such as Apple TV, Disney+, Netflix, and so on.  

Despite all this, we’ve not been able to add the apps we’ve downloaded to the television’s home screen, meaning we have to search for them each time.  Yes, I know it’s a first-world problem.

I did what I always do and turned to Google and YouTube.  However, the instructions for adding apps to your LG TV home screen made no sense with what I was seeing on our own screen.  I was left scratching my head wondering what the hell was going on.  

We let it go for a while until Friday afternoon when I decided to have another try.  I fired up the home screen, and on my Mac, I loaded up Google and searched “adding apps to LG TV home screen.”  I was determined to solve this issue once and for all.  

So, I picked up the remote for the TV and thought, “It’s a bit weird that this TV is LG and the remote says Samsung.”

Yes, dear reader, my new TV is a Samsung device which explains why the search for instructions for an LG did not help.  Sometimes the problem is not the technology but the idiot in the chair.  

New Job

I’m starting my new job this coming week.  On the first day, I have to travel to Milton Keynes to meet a few people in person and to pick up some IT equipment.  From that point on the job is based from home with just an occasional visit to head office required.

When I left Lloyds I had wanted an extended break before returning to work but circumstances mean that the break has to be shorter.  On the plus side, this job is a fantastic opportunity and ticks pretty much every box I wanted.  The hours and pay are better, and the nuts and bolts of the job appear much more in line with how I’d rather work.

Lloyds were a great employer and they treated me very well.  However, the way my specific role was changing was not for me.  More and more was expected with less and less ability to use your initiative and judgement.

One thing that appeals to me about this new role is the ability to be judged on my performance and judgement, and I’m feeling fired up for the challenge in a way I’ve not felt for some time.  

DeepSeek, ChatGPT, and AI

A new contender has entered the chat, as the DeepSeek app is set to rival ChatGPT.  This new app has reportedly been developed at a fraction of the cost of similar models in the West.  This has been termed by some as a “Sputnik Moment” demonstrating that some of the sanctions against China have been ineffective. 

Like with most things in our society, once the genie is out of the bottle there is no putting it back.  We will almost certainly see an arms race of sorts, as different companies and nations compete to create ever more sophisticated AI models.  Some people are nervous of a Skynet or Cylon-type apocalypse where AI takes over the world, but I think this is extremely unlikely.  I’m not saying that AI tech is not without danger, but we’re not likely to see the type of disaster depicted in Terminator or the new Battlestar Galactica.  The reason for this is simple; I don’t think we’ll crack sapient AI anytime soon.  

When you talk to ChatGPT you can be forgiven for sometimes forgetting you are chatting with software.  It’s sophisticated software, but it’s still just code.  It’s not made that leap from being alive, to sentience, to sapience.  

Human sapience (wisdom, self-awareness, and the ability to deeply reason and reflect) comes from several key factors that differentiate us from LLMs like ChatGPT.  There are six key areas to consider:  

1. Consciousness & Self-Awareness  

Humans have subjective experiences (qualia) and a sense of “self.”  You “know” who “you” are, and where you end.  LLMs process information but have no self-awareness, emotions, or internal experience.    

2. Generalized Understanding & Intentionality

Humans understand the world holistically, with personal goals, desires, and intentions.  LLMs generate responses based on statistical patterns without true understanding or intent.  

3. Abstract & Intuitive Reasoning 

Humans can make intuitive leaps, recognise patterns outside of strict data inputs and engage in creative problem-solving.  LLMs lack true intuition; they operate on explicit input-output relationships, i.e. garbage in, garbage out.

4. Emotion & Morality 

Human reasoning is shaped by emotions, ethics, and social context.  LLMs simulate moral reasoning based on training data but don’t feel right or wrong.  They can describe an emotion, but they can’t experience it.    

5. Long-Term Autonomy & Decision-Making  

Humans set personal goals, learn from mistakes, and plan across decades.  LLMs react in the moment without independent long-term planning.  LLMs do not have goals or desires.

6. Embodiment & Experience  

Humans interact with the physical world through their senses and bodies.  LLMs lack direct experiences and rely entirely on text-based training data.  

In short, humans are sapient because they are conscious, self-directed beings with emotions, intuition, and moral reasoning. LLMs, while impressive, are just sophisticated pattern-matching tools without true understanding or awareness.

If an AI was responsible for the destruction of humankind, it would be because of how we trained it and the lack of controls placed on it, rather than being the AI’s own choice.

To drive the point home I want to explain with a couple of examples.  The first was a thought experiment I heard at university.  It’s been called a few things, and the exact details vary, but the version I’m most familiar with goes like this…

The Chinese Box

You are placed inside a room with no way of seeing or observing the outside world, except for a drawer.  You are given an instruction book that has many different scenarios detailed in the following format; if *x* then *y*; in other words, you reply with a specific symbol if a specific symbol is given to you.  

And so the experiment begins…

From the outside, a card with a symbol depicted is dropped in the drawer.  You examine the symbol and find the relevant scenario in your book, and then reply with the appropriate symbol.  You place your reply in the drawer and wait.  Sometime later another card appears in the drawer, and again you look it up in your book and reply as instructed.  

This goes on for some time.  Little do you know you are actually conversing in Hanzi, the Chinese script.  The person outside your box believes you understand the language because you are making all the right replies, but you are simply following a set of instructions without understanding what you are doing on a deeper level.

This is, in a very basic way, how LLMs work.  There are other types of AI being researched and developed, but we don’t have to worry about a rampaging Microsoft Clippy in our lifetime.

Dimensions

I was chatting about all this with my Dad the other day, as we love discussing all things science.  I came up with another way of explaining why I don’t think we will develop conscious AI anytime soon.  

We can perceive three spatial dimensions; length, width, and depth.  No matter how well we understand those three dimensions, we can’t perceive four spatial dimensions.  In the same vein we can create ever more sophisticated AI, we are still working within a closed system.  At present, we only know of one way to create sapient life, and it doesn’t involve AI.

More Fun with DPD

I’m very much at the point where I expect things to go wrong when dealing with almost any business. My next example comes from trying to order Nespresso capsules for delivery. 

Now that Nespresso has closed the only physical store in Sheffield, I can either travel to Leeds or order online.  Faced with that choice, it’s not really a choice.  Nespresso use DPD for their deliveries and I’ve had enough things delivered from DPD to understand how they work.  I receive a text message giving me my one-hour delivery window, as well as access to a live tracker telling me where in the delivery schedule I am, i.e. the driver is making delivery 55 and I’m number 92.

Anyway, on Saturday last week (25th January) they were supposed to deliver my capsules between 14:00 and 15:00.  I kept an eye on the delivery tracker, but a little before they arrived at my location I received a message stating:

“Your parcel will be delivered Sun 26 Jan to your nearest shop as no one was in today.”

We were both home.  Our intercom did not ring, nor did anyone call.  Further, the shop they delivered to was 45 minutes walk away.  We don’t have a car, hence why we chose delivery.  

Anyway, I called Nespresso and explained the situation and they agreed to send out a duplicate package.  

Attempt Two

On Wednesday I got a message saying DPD would arrive between 10:57 and 11:57.  As before I kept an eye on the tracking data, and I went as far as to go downstairs to the street a little before the driver arrived.  I saw the DPD van at the building across the square from us (a student hall).  The driver walked from that building to his van and then drove off.  A moment later my phone pinged:

“Your parcel will be delivered Thu 30 Jan to your nearest shop as no one was in today.”

I was, to put it bluntly, absolutely fucking raging.

So, I took a few minutes to calm down and then called DPD who informed me of several things;

1. I was lying.
2. The driver has photographic evidence that I was lying.
3. The parcel was already at the pick-up point.
4. There was nothing they could do.

I asked what photo they had that could possibly prove I was lying.  I explained I stood and watched the events unfold myself.  No attempt was made to deliver to my address.  The address for this building and the student hall are not even remotely similar.  

Anyway, Nespresso is sending a third package which, as I type this on Saturday afternoon, is on its way to me.  I’m delivery 78 and the driver is on 61.  Will I receive my coffee today?  I don’t know, but I’m nervous and excited.  

Note: the coffee arrived.  The box was left in our post room with no attempt made to ring our buzzer.

Three

I’m not going to bitch about their recent outage that left many people without a phone signal.  No, I’m going to bitch about their absolute incompetence in dealing with a simple request and subsequent complaint.

Oana changed her name last year and had to go through the process of sending her deed poll to many different places for things like council tax, mortgages, GP practice, utilities, and so on.  Apart from a few issues getting her name updated on the mortgage, it was fairly straightforward.  Except for Three.  

The long and short of it is over several months they kept changing their mind about what proof they needed.  They then asked for things they’d already got and made several mistakes in their attempt to update Oana’s details.  When she logged a complaint, they closed it without action.  They also stated they tried to call her, but there was no evidence of that on our side.

Eventually, after a lot of work, they updated Oana’s name.  After months of back and forth, and more phone calls, live chats, and email exchanges than I can count, Three offered Oana £7 compensation.  £7.  Whole.  Pounds.  

They haggled for a while, offering £10, then £15.  Oana asked for a deadlock letter, and we’ll be going to the Ombudsman.  In total, she has spent over five hours either on the phone with Three or dealing with them on live chat.  This sort of thing shouldn’t be difficult.  

Customer Service

I know it’s not just me, but sometimes it feels that way.  Everyone I discuss this with agrees that customer service seems to be getting worse across the board.  When did it start?

I think the fall in standards accelerated during Covid.  It was such an easy excuse for businesses to use when handling complaints regarding their service.  The thing is, we’re years on from Covid.  It’s no longer a valid excuse.  

When I deal with a retailer, I try to remember how stressful dealing with customers can be.  It’s also important to remember that many retailers treat their staff badly.  So, it’s not surprising that many staff are not motivated.

I don’t know what the answer is because most sectors are dominated by just a few big players, and they’re all as shit as each other.  For mobile phones in the UK, you have O2, Three, Vodafone, and EE as the main networks.  Years ago I had major issues with Vodafone as they gave me a phone number that belonged to someone else.  I couldn’t set my phone up, and when I tried to call the new number I was given from my landline, some random guy picked up.  Vodafone tried to refuse me a refund or a new number.  I was not impressed.

I’ve heard equally bad stories about O2 and EE.  So, whilst I could move to another provider, I have no guarantee that it will actually be a better experience.  When the big companies have no incentive to drastically improve, we can’t expect them to improve.  Three know they can just snap up customers who leave O2 because of crap service, whilst O2 aren’t worried because they can just sign up those leaving EE for being rubbish.  

What I’m Doing

Listening: Apostles of Mercy by Lindsay Ellis.

Watching: Rings of Power (Amazon).

Rings of Power is awful.  It’s badly written and has way too many annoying characters.  The whole Harfoot plot is painful to watch, and for someone who is over 3,000 years old at this point in the story, Galadriel comes across as immature and hot-headed.  It’s also a show that manages to look incredibly cheap despite having a huge amount of money thrown at it.  The one thing that irritates me the most with any film or show is when the plot moves along because of the stupidity of an annoying child.  

You may be wondering why I’m still watching it if it’s that bad.  My parents didn’t raise a quitter.  Also, it’s sort of amusing seeing just how bad it can get.

I’m thoroughly enjoying Apostles of Mercy, the third book in the Noumena series.  The level of thought and detail put into the alien civilisation is refreshing, as is the approach the book takes to mental health and trauma.  I’m not sure if this is the final book in the series or if more are planned, and I don’t want to look in case I spoil the ending for myself.  

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Financial Update

Assets

Premium Bonds: £30,000.00.

Stocks and Shares ISA: £92,264.89.

Fuck It Fund: £13,052.13.

Pensions: £93,959.59.

Residential Property Value: £237,228.00. 

Total Assets: £466,504.61.

Debts

Residential Mortgage: £184,492.19. 

Total Debts: £184,492.19.

Total Wealth: £282,012.42.

Mortgage

Over the last few months, I’ve found myself increasingly thinking about paying our mortgage off as a priority.  My mental calculations suggest this could be possible by the end of the 2020s, but I’ve not done a full set of calculations with the help of a computer, so here goes…

So the mortgage stands at roughly £184,500.  On a typical month we pay approx £300 off the debt, and because of how daily interest works an increasing amount of each payment will come off the debt as we progress through the mortgage term.  For this scenario, I’m going to assume that a simple £300 monthly reduction on the balance is what happens.

So, there are 59 payments left in the 2020s, as we’ve already paid January’s payment but February’s is not yet showing.  59 x £300 = £17,700, which subtracted from £184,500 leaves us with £166,800.

My plan to repay that balance is simple; use my ISA.

ISA Calculations

At present my ISA has a balance of approximately £92,250.  I will make five further deposits into the ISA in April of 2025/26/27/28/29.  If I assume a 6% growth rate alongside £20k being invested each year, I would finish with; £237,500.

This would mean using up a significant chunk of my savings but it would also mean a drastic reduction in our cost of living.  

I’m not massively comfortable with that set of numbers though, and would like to come out with more left in savings.  So the question is, how much extra do we need to find to pay a greater balance off the mortgage each month?  Ideally, I think the mortgage needs to be less than £120,000 by the end of the 2020s so I’m only using up around half the projected ISA balance.  That means a £65,000(ish) reduction.

Each £100 extra I clear off the balance each month brings the total down by £5,900 (not accounting for the impact on daily interest and how this reduction compounds over time). 

So, roughly, the mortgage needs to be reduced by a total of £1,100 each month; to go from £184,500 to £119,600 in 59 months.  An extra £800 on top of the current £300 monthly reduction.  

It’s a big jump, but once Oana and I are both back earning it is doable.  These calculations also don’t account for possible rate changes.  When our current deal expires we may be able to secure a lower rate, which would speed things up a little.  

Other Considerations

Although I’ve approached this scenario from the point of view of paying the mortgage off in full, it might not be the wisest choice.  When you have a mortgage account open, you can often secure additional borrowing fairly quickly and easily.  However, if you pay your mortgage off in full and subsequently need to raise funds against your property, it’s a whole new mortgage application with solicitors and whatnot involved.  As such, bringing the mortgage down to a small level and then maintaining the payments for the foreseeable can be a safe way to keep the mortgage door open in case you need to go through it again.  

ISA Transfer and Pension Thoughts

My ISA transfer has finally been completed, and it will save me approximately £35 every month.  I’m now looking for somewhere cheaper to place my SIPP.  My pension is in two parts at the moment; the bulk of it is with my employer’s scheme and the smaller portion is with the same company I had my ISA with.  I’ve tried looking up who my new employer’s pension scheme is with, but I can’t find any up-to-date information.  

It might seem like a pointless task to switch from one provider to another, but even small differences in fees can have massive impacts on growth over years and decades.  Also, different providers may have different funds available to invest in.  It’s worth taking the time to research these things as it can potentially result in thousands of pounds of extra, or missed, growth.

That’s all for this week.  Thank you for reading, and I hope you have a great week ahead.

DISCLAIMER

The views and opinions in this blog are my own, and do not represent the views or opinions of my former, current, or future employers, nor should they be considered advice.

If you want personalised financial advice, seek an appropriate professional.  If you are in financial difficulty, seek advice via the resources below:

StepChange

MoneyHelper

Biolink 

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bio.link/davidscothern.