Part 282: There and Back Again

Hello and welcome back to Mortgage Advisor on FIRE. This week I discuss an interesting take on the 4% rule. Also, a little look at season tickets in football, and a great walk in the Peak District.

Weekly Update

I started the week with a visit to the GP that ended up being a complete waste of time for everyone.  I had an appointment booked with one of the regular GPs who knows me and my storied medical history.  However, when I was called in to see the GP it was clear something was wrong.

In a medical setting, perhaps more than any other, clear communication is vital.  This GP could not speak English well.  I don’t doubt their medical knowledge or ability to practice medicine, but their English was extremely limited and what they did say was more mumbled than clearly spoken.  Oana was in the room with me, and neither of us could understand anything that was being said.  I tried to relay information to the GP, and it was clear they couldn’t understand me either.  I ended up leaving the appointment having achieved nothing.

The regular GP was off sick, which happens and is no big deal.  The big deal is that any replacement needs to be able to communicate clearly in the primary language of that setting.  If I was in Germany, for example, I’d expect the GP to speak German and the responsibility would be on me to bridge that communication gap.  

I’ll need to go again to sort out what I was there for in the first place, and hopefully, it will proceed more clearly all around. 

Mam Tor

On Saturday, four of us took a trip to Castleton. It was an early start, with our friend Yvonne picking us up at 6:30 am. We parked on Buxton Road and set off through the fields towards the start of the climb, which led us over rocky and muddy paths. The ascent was steep but enjoyable. Along the way, we encountered a few fellow early risers with their dogs, and most of the people we met at the beginning were friendly, though that wasn’t the case for the entire day.  

For those unfamiliar, Mam Tor is a 517m hill that dominates the landscape around Edale, Hope, and Castleton. It’s a breathtaking part of the Peak District, and living in Sheffield, we’re lucky to have it so close by.  

The Shivering Mountain

The name Mam Tor, which means “Mother Hill” in Old English, comes from the frequent landslips that have created several smaller hills around it. Something I didn’t know before, but find fascinating, is that the hill has another name “The Shivering Mountain” a nod to the shale in the area that contributes to its constant shifting.  It’s funny that it sounds like something from Lord of the Rings as I was thinking about the story on my way up.

Once we made it to the top we were unable to enjoy the spectacular views around the valley because of the thick fog that limited visibility to about 30 meters.  We laughed at this because at another time our views were blocked by fog up a mountain in Romania.  In 2016, or maybe 2017, Oana and I were in Romania on a road trip through the Făgăraș Mountains.  We made it to the top only to be lost in some of the thickest fog I’ve ever experienced, so we did the natural thing and stopped to eat some corn on the cob that was being boiled in an old oil drum, but that’s another story.

We set off from Mam Tor towards Back Tor, which I think is even higher than Mam Tor.  The climb up Back Tor is a long stair made from stone, which again felt like something from Lord of the Rings.  Oana and I had fun quoting it to each other; “Up, up, up, up the stair we go, and then, a tunnel!”

Thankfully there was no tunnel concealing a giant spider at the end of this climb.

Don’t be weird…

As the morning progressed the area became increasingly busier, and some of the other walkers were a little ignorant.  We had stopped for a bite to eat in a fairly isolated place, and a family decided to park themselves, and their screaming children, right next to us.  It was like being in an empty cinema, and another person came and sat next to you; a bit weird.

We were already halfway through eating and it would have been a pain to pack up and move, so we just finished eating and set back off.

The walk back down into Castleton was, in some ways, more difficult than the walk up.  Going downhill just hits differently.  By the time we made it back down, we were all getting pretty tired having done over 20,000 steps.  It was worth it though, and I’m glad I made the effort to wake up before six in the morning!

How Many People Are There?

The study of carrying capacity for the Earth is fascinating to me.  It’s the attempt to work out what is the maximum population the planet can sustainably support.  Estimates have ranged anywhere from 2 billion people, to upwards of 30 billion plus.  I saw one study that suggested a global population in the hundreds of billions.  One major factor in any estimate is what quality of life the population would enjoy.  A number too high, or even too low, presents problems, like maintaining a food distribution network. 

To understand what our maximum, sustainable, carrying capacity is we first need to understand how many people there are now.  Have you ever thought about how we work this out?

At present it is estimated there are approximately 8.2 billion people on Earth.  We are thought to have surpassed 8 billion sometime in 2022.  However, how can we know for sure?

There are almost 200 countries on Earth, and each has its own way of tracking its population.  One common method is a national census, but even these aren’t necessarily accurate.  In a recent article in the Independent, it’s suggested that the 2012 census in Paraguay “may have missed a quarter of the population.”

Huge parts of the planet are taken up by developing nations where healthcare and record keeping are patchy, at best.  The question is how far out are our estimates?

The Impact of Undocumented Births

One of the key challenges in accurately determining the global population is the prevalence of undocumented births.  The issue is particularly pronounced in developing nations where access to healthcare, infrastructure, and bureaucratic processes can be limited. In remote rural areas, many births occur outside of hospitals or medical facilities, with no immediate way to register them. Additionally, cultural, economic, and political factors can contribute to underreporting. For instance, in some regions, birth registration may not be a priority for families due to financial constraints, distrust in authorities, or a lack of awareness about the importance of official documentation.

Conflict zones and areas affected by displacement present another significant obstacle. Refugee populations often lack access to proper registration systems, meaning that many births go unrecorded. As a result, these children may grow up without legal recognition, making it harder for them to access education, healthcare, and other essential services.

Even in more developed countries, issues related to undocumented migration can contribute to gaps in population data. Families living without legal status may be hesitant to engage with government authorities, leading to unregistered births that skew national statistics.

Why it matters

The implications of undocumented births are far-reaching. Inaccurate population data can affect policy-making, resource allocation, and economic planning. Governments rely on census data to determine funding for public services such as schools, hospitals, and social programmes. When a portion of the population is unaccounted for, these essential services risk being underfunded or misdirected.  Note: If your President is Trump, it’s probably going to be worse.

Efforts to address this challenge include improving birth registration systems, investing in digital record-keeping, and increasing awareness about the importance of documentation. International organisations such as UNICEF advocate for universal birth registration, recognising it as a fundamental human right that ensures access to identity, nationality, and basic services.

Ultimately, a more accurate global population count depends on overcoming the barriers that lead to undocumented births. Strengthening registration processes worldwide will not only improve data accuracy but also help protect the rights of individuals from birth throughout their lives.  When you think about it, what’s a more fundamental right than having your existence recognised?

No doubt there will be some conspiracy nuts who foam at the mouth about the idea of Big Brother tracking us by registering our births.  They’ll be banging on about this on Facebook, after using their driving licence as ID as they buy beer from a supermarket at a discount after swiping their loyalty card. 

One more time for those at the back of the class: The government already knows what it needs to know.  

What I’m Doing

Listening: Wool by Hugh Howey.

Watching: Cool Worlds (YouTube), In Deep Geek (YouTube).

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Financial Update

Assets

Premium Bonds: £30,500.00.

Stocks and Shares ISA: £89,250.98.

Fuck It Fund: £8,086.04.

Pensions: £92,744.02.

Residential Property Value: £237,228.00. 

Total Assets: £457,809.04.

Debts

Residential Mortgage: £184,813.17. 

Total Debts: £184,813.17.

Total Wealth: £272,995.87.

Not Another 4% Post…

I saw an interesting post on Reddit this week, which reframed the 4% rule (or any withdrawal rate %).  The idea was to look at specific parts of your spending and work out what you would need to have invested to cover that expense.  For example, if you spend £100pm on coffee, you would need £1,200pa.  Using a 4% withdrawal rate, you’d need to have £30,000 invested just to cover your caffeine habit.  

While this idea isn’t revolutionary, it does help provide context for how much importance you place on certain expenses.  If you wanted to cover a premium television package, like Sky at £50pm, with things like Netflix, Amazon, and Disney+ all thrown in, you could be looking at £80pm.  This would mean you’d need £24,000 with a 4% withdrawal rate to fund your TV habits.  If you plan to continue buying cars on finance and paying for all the associated costs of owning a car, you are probably looking at a minimum of £300pm.  How much would you need to have invested to cover this expense? £90,000.  I’d rather use public transport or Uber to be honest.  

The 4% rule is, in my opinion, too safe.  However, this is something that each person has to decide upon for themselves.  When modelling a withdrawal rate, the assumption is that you will stick rigidly to that plan even as it looks to fail.  In reality, you would change course and do something differently.  If I had a couple of years where my pot was shrinking, I’d be looking at the numbers and the global economy to see what was going wrong.  I wouldn’t just carry on relentlessly driving my investments down to nothing.  

Season Tickets – All Roads Lead To Money

Many years ago I followed football intensely.  Now, I would struggle to name more than a couple of players for each Premier League club, and I can’t remember the last time I sat and watched a football match without splitting my attention with something else.

The problem with football now is money.  Everything comes back to money.  Clubs want to get promoted to the Premier League, primarily, because of the money.  Clubs don’t want to be relegated as it’s a financial disaster.  Champions League qualification? Money.  It’s all about money.

For many clubs lower down the pecking order; basically those outside the Premier League, a massive part of their income comes from season tickets.  You pay a lump sum that gives you a ticket for every home league match, and you get it at a reduced price per game compared to buying tickets for each match individually.  

They want to do what…?

Some owners have stated that they don’t like the season ticket model because it doesn’t let them price tickets dynamically, according to supply and demand.  If you have say 75% of your attendance sold as season tickets, the price for each match is the same whether it’s against a top club like Manchester City or a midtable club like Manchester United.

If you don’t have season tickets and every supporter has to buy tickets individually, the theory is you’ll receive more money as the PPG is higher.  For the vast majority of clubs, this theory is completely fucking stupid.

First of all, there’s a massive difference between paying a one-off cost for long-term benefits and paying smaller amounts over and over.  People can rationalise paying £800 to watch every home game their team plays.  Asking them to pay £50 per game hits differently.  You’re more likely to miss a game here or there, and there’s a much greater danger of losing the habit and routine of going to the match.

If you have a group of friends you normally watch the game with, it’s easier to organise the purchase of a ticket once every year or so, instead of a couple of dozen times a year.  People may find themselves sitting in a different seat each game, and for high-demand games, they may not be able to attend at all.  For the sake of a few extra pounds, it seems a risky strategy.

Losing the habit…

There are many people I’ve discussed this with who had season tickets but then gave them up for one reason or another.  They intended to pay here and there for individual matches, but have quickly moved on to other interests.  I’m one of those people.  I had my last season ticket just before Covid hit.  I gave it up because I didn’t like how the club was being run.  When I bought my season ticket, to support the club, knowing full well that I’d miss about a quarter of the games due to work and holidays.  I still made that investment.  When I gave up my season ticket, I thought I’d go to the odd match here and there.  Since the 2018/2019 season, which I think was my first without renewing my season ticket, I’ve been to a match precisely zero times.  I think my last season ticket was £650ish.  That’s a fair old chunk of money the club lost out on, and I know I’m not the only one to have done this.  

Clubs should not be arguing against season tickets but rather should be promoting them.  Yes, the price per game might not be as good, but getting all of a smaller pie is better than none of a larger pie.

That’s all for this week.  I hope you enjoyed this blog, and if you have any thoughts let me know in the comments.    

DISCLAIMER

The views and opinions in this blog are my own, and do not represent the views or opinions of my former, current, or future employers, nor should they be considered advice.

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