Hello and welcome back to Mortgage Advisor on FIRE. This week I discuss some cognitive biases when it comes to financial decisions. Also, a look at the fiasco in the Oval Office, and the end of another busy week.
Weekly Update
I’ve now completed my fourth week in my new job and the pace has slowed slightly in the last couple of days. I’m expecting it to ramp up again from next week as we enter the second half of training.
On the whole I’m enjoying the new job, but the hours are tough. It’s Monday to Friday, 9am to 6pm. I’m used to working an eight hour day with an hour for lunch, and it’s only an extra hour here, but it does make a difference. Now that I’m a month in to it, I think I’m starting to adapt. Finishing at 6pm doesn’t leave much time to chill out once you’ve showered, had dinner, and tidied up, but it’s so much better than finishing at 6pm and having to travel home from an office.
We had a good evening on Friday as we had my Dad over to watch the football and Oana and I made a Brazilian dish with black beans, and lime and chilli chicken. The football didn’t exactly go according to plan, but that’s the life of a Sheffield Wednesday fan.
On Saturday Oana and I did some food shopping and then spent a solid six hours doing various bits of DIY in our apartment. We put together some Ikea Kallax units so we can display more Lego, and some more shelves on the walls so we can, you guessed it, display even more Lego. Some people say I have a Lego problem, but my only Lego problem is not having enough room for all the sets I want.
We are looking forward to Sunday afternoon as we are going for a pub lunch with a friend we’ve not seen for a while. We all chat on WhatsApp fairly regularly but adulting means we only get to hang out in person once every so often.
The Oval Office Clusterfuck
In light of the recent Oval Office confrontation between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump’s approach to the Ukraine war appears increasingly reckless and counterproductive. Or, to put it less diplomatically, Trump and Vance are a couple of dumbfuck bullies who set a trap for Zelensky to try and embarrass him.
The February 28th meeting, allegedly intended to solidify a minerals agreement and advance peace efforts, devolved into a heated exchange, culminating in the deal’s abrupt cancellation.
During the meeting, Trump accused Zelensky of “gambling with World War Three,” a statement reflecting a profound misunderstanding of the complexities surrounding Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression. Such comments not only undermine a key ally but also embolden adversarial powers like Russia. From now on, whenever I’m even mildly inconvenienced I will explain to the other party they are “gambling with World War Three.”
It’s often useful in life to try and see the other side of the argument, but in this situation there isn’t much moral ambiguity. Russia invaded Ukraine. Ukraine is fighting for survival, and for its sovereignty. This is not a situation where both sides have a valid point; it’s a simple case of right and wrong.
Trump’s actions during the meeting have strained relations with European allies, who continue to support Ukraine’s sovereignty. His confrontational stance threatens the cohesion of NATO and undermines collective efforts to counter Russian expansionism. One potential impact of all this could be the creation of a European military to take charge of a unified European defence against external aggressors.
The Orange Muppet of Doom
The orange muppet’s recent behavior also underscores a disregard for democratic principles and international alliances. By alienating allies and failing to stand firmly against authoritarian aggression, he risks destabilising global security and emboldening Putin.
Trump’s handling of the recent meeting with Zelensky was utterly ridiculous. For some reason, many Americans love him and I just can’t understand it. Trump is a horrible human being. He exemplifies many of the worst qualities of our species. Now, he’s the leader of the most powerful nation on the planet, but he’s got the emotional intelligence of a potato. Zelensky handled himself with as much dignity as anyone could in that meeting. He looked shellshocked one moment, to completely confused the next.
I’m at the point where I simply despair. If this war worsens, it will be because of narcissists like Trump. I would love to know what Putin has on Trump to have him dangling like a puppet on a string. One day I hope we find out.
In case you missed it…
I published a couple of posts midweek which you can find below:
“Two is one, and one is none.”
What I’m Doing
Listening: Tools of Titans by Tim Ferriss
Watching: Zero Day (Netflix).
Zero Day has a huge cast but just really badly made. The writing is awful, and the show is full of tired tropes and cliches. It’s the cheapest feeling show I’ve seen since the first season of Rings of Power. We made it to the end of the second episode and I was done.
I have just finished Tools of Titans and I’m about to start Wool, the first book in the Silo series. I would say that I enjoyed some of Tools of Titans, but there was also a lot of bullshit in there. The book contained many instances of successful people giving no acknowledgement to the contribution of chance to their success. I’ve written several times before about survivor bias and I think anyone reading this book should keep that concept in mind.
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DonateDonate monthlyDonate yearlyFinancial Update
Assets
Premium Bonds: £30,000.00.
Stocks and Shares ISA: £91,448.80.
Fuck It Fund: £6,766.54.
Pensions: £94,480.99.
Residential Property Value: £237,228.00.
Total Assets: £459,924.33.
Debts
Residential Mortgage: £184,200.23.
Total Debts: £184,200.23.
Total Wealth: £275,724.10.
If you’ve ever spent an hour scrolling through comparison websites to save a fiver on your phone contract but barely blinked before following someone’s “hot stock tip” on social media, you’re not alone. There’s a strange paradox when it comes to money: people will meticulously research the small stuff but take massive financial risks based on little more than gut feeling or a random recommendation.
When it comes to money, people tend to exhibit two conflicting behaviors:
1. Extreme diligence over small, recurring expenses with hours spent switching energy providers, hunting down the best broadband deal, or stacking promo codes to shave a few quid off a takeaway.
2. Blind trust in strangers for major financial decisions and acting on investment advice from an influencer with no credentials, buying crypto because a friend of a friend made money on it, or jumping into a mortgage lender without comparing deals.
Why? Because the small stuff feels tangible, familiar, and easy to compare. The big stuff? It’s overwhelming, complex, and often intimidating, and so people take shortcuts.
The Cost of Ignoring Big Decisions
The irony is that optimising big financial choices can have a significantly greater impact than micromanaging small expenses. Consider these examples:
Mortgages: A 0.5% difference in mortgage interest rates can mean paying thousands extra over the lifetime of a loan. Yet, some people just go with whatever their bank offers rather than seeking out the best rate.
Investments: People will blindly follow Reddit or Twitter advice on stocks and crypto without understanding the risks, potentially losing thousands in the process.
Pensions: Many workers don’t even check where their pension is invested, let alone consider whether they’re getting the best returns.
Insurance: A poorly chosen life or income protection policy could leave a family financially devastated, yet people will sign up without checking exclusions or terms.
Meanwhile, the “small wins” like switching car insurance might save £50 a year, not insignificant I grant you, but nothing compared to the thousands lost through poor financial planning.
Why Are We Like This?
Several psychological biases explain this behavior. People can experience decision fatigue, where big financial decisions feel overwhelming. These people then fall back to what is easiest or most familiar.
Another example is where people follow in the footsteps of friends, family, or a social media personality or influencer. People brag about success but generally hide their failures. It’s like survivor bias again; people see others succeeding and what a piece of the action too, all while ignoring many others who lost money doing the same thing.
There’s also a bias towards the present, where an immediate saving now is more impactful than a potentially bigger saving in the distant future.
How to Break the Cycle
To avoid falling into the trap of misplaced priorities, consider the following steps:
Prioritise High-Impact Decisions First
Before spending an hour haggling over a broadband deal, make sure your mortgage, pension, and insurance are optimised. Tackling these three things can save thousands in interest, and also make sure you’re not leaving free money on the table by not taking full advantage of pension matching.
Vet Your Sources
If you wouldn’t take medical advice from an unqualified TikToker, don’t take financial advice from one either. Also ask yourself if the person giving the advice will make money from you doing what they are advising. If they will, it’s not only advice but sales at the same time. This doesn’t automatically mean it’s bad advice, but it’s always a good idea to put advice in the right context.
Think Long-Term
Cutting down on subscriptions is great, but making sure your investments and retirement plans are on track is even better. The accumulation of wealth is often simple but it takes time and can’t be rushed. It’s like the old proverb, “How do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time.”
Be Smart With Your Time and Money
There’s nothing wrong with being savvy about everyday expenses but if you’re spending more time choosing a Netflix plan than selecting a mortgage, something is off. By shifting your focus to the big decisions first, you can make a real difference in your financial future while still enjoying the small wins along the way.
Another way to think about this is to use the example of rocks, pebbles, sand, and a jar. If you fill the jar with sand, you won’t have room for the bigger rocks and pebbles. This would be like spending all your time and energy saving a few quid here and there on TV packages, phone contracts, and the like. Once finished with this, you will not have the mental energy to tackle your mortgage and other big financial commitments.
Instead, fill the jar with rocks; the big items like your mortgage, loan payments, and investments. You can then pour in the smaller pebbles and sand, which will fill in the gaps between the bigger rocks.
That’s all for this week. Thank you for reading and I hope you have a great week ahead. Just be sure not to do anything that could risk World War Three.
DISCLAIMER
The views and opinions in this blog are my own, and do not represent the views or opinions of my former, current, or future employers, nor should they be considered advice.
If you want personalised financial advice, seek an appropriate professional. If you are in financial difficulty, seek advice via the resources below:
Biolink
You can now find all my social media pages by checking out my Biolink:
bio.link/davidscothern.
Regarding your training in your new role, could it be that the pace has stayed the same but your “work fitness” has improved? As cyclists Greg LeMond said, “It never gets easier, you just go faster.”
Regarding finance, people really do sweat the small stuff. Could it be that, if you mess up the small stuff, you only mess up in a small way. People might be inclined to ignore the big stuff so they don’t mess up in a big way. Furthermore, could it be that people assume some other “they” would tell them if the big stuff isn’t optimal and because this elusive “they” haven’t said anything, their current setup mustn’t be broken?
It could be that the fitness is improving, yeah. Or it could be that I’m taking in enough caffeine to kill a horse each day.
“He’s got the emotional intelligence of a potato.” This is unfair to potatoes.
I was thinking a rotten baby potato.