Part 250: “One is my name. The other is not.”

Hello and welcome back to Mortgage Advisor on FIRE.  This week I discuss the recent riots across the UK, and offer some thoughts on data collection and analysis.  Also, a look at how tiny increases in regular investing can reap big rewards.  

Weekly Update

These riots are annoying and it’s all the usual bullshit about “taking back our country” from people who, let’s be fair, are a bit dim.  I’m still no wiser as to what smashing up your town or city has to do with immigration.

People will have their views on whether they want to live in a country that welcomes refugees and asylum seekers, or one that closes its borders.  I’m of the view that people will believe what they want to believe and you can’t always reason with a belief that is emotionally charged.  Immigration is an emotionally charged topic and I doubt appealing to reason or facts will do much to change opinion.

In a typical year, roughly 650,000 – 700,000 people are born in the UK.  In 2023 just under 30,000 people came to the UK in boats across the channel.  Yes, people crossing the channel in small boats is an issue; people should cross via safe, official, routes where possible.  It’s hardly the mass invasion that some right-wing hysterical commentators would have you believe.

The murder of those little girls in Southport was horrific and tragic but it should be noted that claims the perpetrator came to the UK on a small boat are wrong.  He was born in the UK, and attempts to hijack these murders are disrespectful.

In short, we need to take appropriate action to make sure people coming to this country are here with legitimate needs.  We also need to protect the people of this country.  We can do both these things without turning into a right-wing ultranationalist shitshow.  

Daily Racism

Racism isn’t just isolated to other people in the news.  My girlfriend of the last 17 years is originally from Romania.  She has experienced a lot of passive-aggressive racism over the years.  For some people, it escalates to something more dangerous and sinister.  

An acquaintance of ours, also from Romania, confided in Oana that they, and their partner, are subject to regular attacks on themselves and their property just because they are not from the UK.  We are talking about; being kicked and punched, being threatened with knives, and having their car and home vandalised. 

This is in a densely populated area of the city, and not somewhere in the sticks with no witnesses.  It’s so fucked up it makes me angry.  I said it last week and I’ll say it again; what the fuck is wrong with people?

Health Update

I had a follow-up with the consultant about my pancreas, as an abnormality was detected when I had a CT scan on my kidneys, leading to another CT on my pancreas.  The long and short of it is there’s nothing to worry about.  There’s some calcification in my pancreas but apart from that it’s all good.  

The frustrating thing is that all this came about as a result of pain in several areas of my body.  Initially, I had a testicular ultrasound, which led to a CT of my kidneys and an ultrasound of my liver, which in turn led to the scan of my pancreas.  After weeks of back and forth with different consultants, who in fairness have been professional and thorough, and many different scans and tests they’ve all concluded that they can’t find anything wrong.  But what about the pain that prompted this whole saga?

Well, the pain is still present.  In my experience, the medical community keep forgetting about what makes people seek medical advice.  It’s the same thing as my right elbow which, a couple of years down the line still gives me a fair amount of pain.  I had scans and physio, but nothing worked.  So the consultant at that point basically shrugged his shoulders.

I’m not saying they should do stuff for the sake of it, but their communication needs to improve as does their empathy.  If you are sat there with a load of test results that show no abnormalities, that’s not necessarily going to be good news.  Sometimes we want something tangible that can be dealt with, rather than just a shrug and indifference.  A simple acknowledgement of this frustration would go a long way.

Data, Communication, and Targets

Nope, not the android who strives to be human.  I’m talking about data; information, statistics, and so on.  As a little side note, I just want to clarify that it’s pronounced data, not data.  

As a bit of a data nerd, I love to see a well-thought-out plan to collect, analyse, and report on data.  Sadly, this is a rare experience, and many efforts to collect data fail because the reason for the whole exercise is either not explained or not understood.  Data in itself is not good or bad; it’s a resource which can lead to massive benefits if used and treated well.  

I’m going to give an example of what I mean, and I’m going back to Natwest to show how some businesses just don’t know what they are doing.

I worked in three different branches during my time at Natwest.  The following took place in one of those branches; the one where I was accused of not processing a cheque which I recently wrote about.  Anyway, this branch was not recording as many complaints as other locations, and the higher-ups wanted to understand why.

Who needs logic?

When faced with something like this, a sensible approach would be to ensure staff know how to recognise and record complaints, and to pay closer attention to interactions between customer-facing staff and the customers who visit the branch.  An approach that makes no fucking sense is to tell all customer-facing staff they need to log three complaints a day.  My manager went with the latter option.

Yes, staff were expected to register three complaints a day.  This was a branch with five customer-facing staff; three cashiers, a banking consultant, and a customer advisor.  Fifteen complaints a day, from a branch that was relatively quiet for most of the day with an empty banking hall.  

What did this whole exercise achieve?  Was anyone in a better position because of this?  Did it lead to any greater understanding?

Just do it, the reason doesn’t matter…

Another example comes from a different business I worked for in the early 2000s.  I loved working for them, but even they were not immune from brain farts.  They wanted to understand how many new claims were opened, and what those claims were for. 

So, they opted to ask staff to record a number of their interactions each day using a three-digit code that was entered into the computer.  Staff were told there was an expected completion rate, which I can’t remember exactly but it was not 100%.  Also, because many codes were similar it was easy to mix them up.  The data collected was, as a result, lacking validity.

The kicker was that the company already could get the data it wanted.  The software used to create claims generated a report on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis which broke down the number of claims registered and categorised them by type.  I pointed this out but was told we still had to follow this process.  Why?  No one was able, or willing, to say.

P-hacking

All this reminds me of the concept of p-hacking.  Now, I’m going to use a phrase I was recently told which is that the following information is directionally accurate but is also massively simplified for ease of explanation.  

If you are completing a study to find out if attendance at work is linked to pay you would have two key variables; attendance at work is the independent variable (the one you are changing or grouping by), and the dependent variable (the one being measured) would be pay.  

You collect your data and run it through a series of tests to determine if there is a significant relationship between attendance at work and pay.  What you are then left with is the p-value, which is the level of significance. 

It is generally accepted that if the p-value is <.05 then the result is statistically significant, i.e. the hypothesis that increased attendance at work leads to higher pay is supported by the data at a statistically significant level.

So, what is p-hacking?

It takes several forms but is the act of collecting as much data as possible before subjecting it to as much analysis as possible so that you can find significant relationships, even if those relationships are total bullshit.  

A good experiment or study starts with a question, which leads to a hypothesis.  This leads to a decision on research methods, data collection, and analysis.  The results are then presented and discussed.  Often, those that p-hack, will work almost in reverse by collecting huge amounts of data and then deciding what they are going to report, whilst deciding on a research question.  

It’s similar to the Texas Sharpshooter idea; you take a rifle and shoot several times into the side of a barn.  Then you take a marker and draw a bullseye around each bullet hole.  

If you torture the data for long enough, you can get it to admit anything.

Sheffield Bricktropolis

“Hi everyone, my name is David…”

“Hi David”

“… and I’m a Lego addict.”

For a few years, an event has run in Sheffield called Sheffield Bricktropolis.  Around the city giant Lego creations are scattered and it’s good fun to take a day to walk around and view them all.  Each year tends to have a different theme, whether it’s space, architecture, dinosaurs, or as is the case for 2024 a safari theme.  

A selection of pics we took is below:

Diabetes UK Step Challenge

From July 1st until September 30th Diabetes UK is running a step challenge to raise money for their cause.  There are three step targets to choose from; 500k, 1m, or 1.7m.  I had originally gone for the 1.7m steps, but it’s become clear I’ve bitten off more than I can chew.  I’m now aiming for the 1m target.  

If you’d like to follow my progress or make a donation, it can be done here.

Letters to Oana

If you missed it, Part 2 of the series Letters to Oana is now live.

Looking Back

Part 14 of the Looking Back series is also live.

What I’m Doing

Listening: The Rift by Brandon Q. Morris (audible).

Watching: 

We are between TV shows at the moment as we are working through our respective books and a few other projects.  I’ve been enjoying the series of audiobooks I’m in the middle of listening to.  It’s a hard(ish) sci-fi series, meaning it tries to be grounded more in actual science than something like Star Wars or Star Trek.  Some of the writing is a little clunky but the story itself is engaging.  I’m on book three and I think there are six in the series.

Website Stuff

It’s getting to that time of year when I need to pay to renew my domain and plan with my site host.  I will probably never make money from this blog but I would like to reduce what it costs me to run.  There are a couple of ways you can help and it will not cost you anything.

Sharing

If you share my blog posts on your social media you are helping me get more traffic.  The more traffic I get, the more ads the site serves, and the more ads served the more revenue I get.  It’s a few seconds of your time, but it will make a big difference for me.

Interactions

Liking and commenting on posts will help boost the site and attract more traffic.  

Subscribe

You can sign up to receive emails when I publish a new post.  

Donate

This is the one that involves paying something.  I’ll never put the site behind a paywall.  However, should you wish to donate to the running costs of the site it would be greatly appreciated.  You can do this via the form below.  You can select one of the suggested amounts or choose your own.

Financial Update

Assets

Premium Bonds: £14,000.00.

Stocks and Shares ISA: £76,355.09.

Fuck It Fund: £346.75.

Pensions: £78,505.29.

Residential Property Value: £234,044.00. 

BTL Property Value: £151,029.00.

Total Assets: £554,280.13.

Debts

Residential Mortgage: £185,958.33. 

BTL Mortgage: £104,787.85.

Total Debts: £290,746.18.

Total Wealth: £263,533.95.

The stock market has taken a hit recently but it’s no big deal.  It will, as always, recover.

I’m in a bit of a holding pattern at the moment where I’m waiting for my BTL sale to complete.  Also, there’s something else going on that I can’t yet discuss which could drastically change my FI plans.  It will not be too much longer before I can discuss this more openly, but for now, I’m just waiting.

We’re halfway through Q3 for 2024 and, on the whole, it’s been a decent year for my finances.  Assuming we don’t end the year with a Trump victory in the US, 2025 could be a very positive year also.  

Pensions

Young adults have it tough with the disconnect between wages, the cost of living, and the cost of rent and property prices being huge.  Trying to buy a decent first home now seems to be beyond a lot of people, with many young adults living month to month.  It sucks.

It’s no surprise, then, that pensions are often overlooked by this demographic.  This isn’t a wise choice though.  Often, employers will match pension contributions above the minimum they are required to.  The more you sacrifice each month from your wage, the more money your employer may also pay.  It’s worth checking out as it’s free money.

I understand that the here and now has to take priority when it comes to money, but if you can free up a little by switching to a better phone/internet/TV package, that extra money could make a huge difference throughout the typical working life.

If someone is paying £50pm into their workplace pension, with the employer paying £30pm, after 30 years the pension would be worth approximately £80k (assuming a 6% rate of growth).  However, if the employee increased their contributions by £15pm, and the employer matched this, after 30 years the pension could be worth over £110,000.  So, for an extra £5,400 (the total of £15 extra per month for 30 years) the pension fund increases by over £30k.

It’s crazy to leave free money on the table in this way.  If you can afford to free up the extra few pounds each month and your employer offers pension matching, then it’s something you should consider.  

That’s all for this week.  Thank you for reading, and I hope you have a great week ahead.  Please remember to share this post, and if you have any thoughts on what I’ve said, leave a comment!

Disclaimer

The views and opinions in this blog are my own, and do not represent the views or opinions of my employer, nor should they be considered advice.  

If you want personalised financial advice, seek an appropriate professional.  If you are in financial difficulty, seek advice via the resources below:

StepChange

MoneyHelper

Biolink 

You can now find all my social media pages by checking out my Biolink:

bio.link/davidscothern.