
Hello and welcome back to Mortgage Advisor on FIRE.
Weekly Update
I’ve got my first week in my new role under my belt, and from next week I will be seeing clients. I’m feeling good about this new opportunity as it offers many of the things I value in a professional setting, like autonomy coupled with support, and the chance to really progress based on merit. After the false start with my previous employer, I’m pretty confident I’ve landed in the right place.
Apart from work, there have not been a huge number of other noteworthy events. The weather has not helped as it’s been very cold and very rainy; not exactly the best weather for biking. We’ve somehow managed to get a couple of decent rides in, though.
Stay in your lane…
Since I started biking, I’ve been genuinely astonished by just how many people appear to move through the world in a state of total sensory shutdown. I don’t mean just distracted or briefly inattentive. I’m talking about being fully checked out. Eyes glued to a phone like it’s administering life support, and their ears are hermetically sealed behind noise-cancelling headphones, presumably blasting a podcast about “mindfulness” while they remain blissfully unaware of the literal, physical environment they are occupying.
These people don’t walk so much as meander. A slow, drifting, diagonal shuffle that obeys no rules of space, flow, or common sense. It’s like watching a shit spinoff of The Walking Dead sponsored by AirPods. They wander straight into clearly marked cycle lanes, you know, the ones with the painted bikes, the signage, the colour-coded tarmac, and then act genuinely surprised that bikes are, in fact, present. It’s like stepping onto a motorway and being offended by cars.
Ah, but your bike has a bell, does it not? Oh, the bell. We ring it. Politely at first. Ding. Then again. Ding ding. Then louder, longer, more urgent; the acoustic equivalent of “PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE REALITY”. Nothing. No flinch. No glance. No recognition that another human being travelling at speed is approaching. Because when your ears are sealed, and your eyes are locked on a six-inch dopamine rectangle, the outside world may as well not exist.
It might be somewhat more understandable if this were a quiet, rural road. It’s not, though. This is shared, busy, infrastructure. This is urban space. This is where cyclists, runners, prams, mobility scooters, dogs, kids, and delivery riders all have to coexist. Yet a growing number of people behave as though they are the sole protagonist in a badly written open-world game, and everyone else is just badly rendered background NPCs.
Note: I am increasingly convinced day by day that NPCs truly do walk amongst us.
One day, and it’s inevitable, someone will step out at precisely the wrong moment. It will be too late for us to brake or swerve. Physics will do what physics always does, and it won’t care that someone was halfway through a voice note or a TikTok.
When this happens, the cyclist will be blamed. Because of course they will. Helmets will be mentioned. Speed will be scrutinised. High-viz will be debated on breakfast television. Meanwhile, the root cause of total, voluntary disengagement from reality will be politely ignored.
This isn’t about cyclists being angry. It’s about basic situational awareness. About understanding that public space is shared, dynamic, and occasionally requires you to lift your head, take one earbud out, and acknowledge that other humans exist. You don’t get to opt out of reality just because your phone is more interesting than the world around you.
If you want to wander around like a zombie, fine. But don’t do it in a cycle lane. And don’t act shocked when the rest of us, who are actually paying attention, are absolutely sick of it.
If you are one of those people that hates cyclists for whatever reason, everything I’ve just said applies to people crossing roads without looking. Everyone, everywhere, needs to pay closer attention to the world around them.
More Customer Service Frustration
If anyone knows of a food delivery service, like Uber Eats or Deliveroo, that’s actually decent, please let me know.
We don’t do it as much as we used to, but every so often, we feel like just ordering in and chilling in front of the TV. Friday was one of those times. We ordered using Uber Eats, and this is where the frustration generally starts.
I’m of the view that if you are ordering hot food and paying a service fee and a delivery fee, the food should go from the restaurant to me directly. It seems like every time now, the rider has several stops before us. This means the food bag is opened up a good few times before we get our food, with the net result being cold food.
On Friday, they went one further by turning up with someone else’s food, having given our food to the person before. Mistakes happen, I get it. I tried to explain to the driver that it wasn’t our food, but there was a language barrier, and at this point, there wasn’t anything he could have done anyway. Dealing with Uber Eats customer service is like self-inflicted torture as well. Eventually, we got a refund and reordered our food. Almost two hours after we placed the first order, we got our food. It was supposed to be convenient and ended up anything but.
There is a simple way of dealing with this: one order at a time, rather than putting delivery drivers under more pressure with multiple deliveries at the same time. I’d happily pay more for this if it meant those doing the deliveries were properly recruited, trained, and looked after.
Barry Bannan: more than a player, Mr Sheffield Wednesday
When Barry Bannan arrived at Sheffield Wednesday, this was a very different football club.
Wednesday were stable and ambitious. We were looking forward, not over our shoulders.
The talk was of building, of progression, of finally forcing the door back open to the Premier League. Bannan was signed as part of a long-term plan.
What followed instead was a decade of near-constant upheaval. Two good seasons that ended in the play-offs gave way to financial hardship, transfer embargoes, and ownership chaos.
COVID ripped the soul out of matchdays. What followed was relegations, points deductions, managers cycling through, squads torn apart, and rebuilt on the cheap. A club with a proud history lurching from crisis to crisis.
In spite of the previous owner, there was one silver lining: Barry Bannan stayed.
He stayed and carried the responsibility. He became the metronome, the organiser, the player who always wanted the ball when others went missing. Over time, he became more than captain; he was the heart and soul of Sheffield Wednesday on the pitch.
And this wasn’t just sentiment or nostalgia. The numbers back it up. Since the 2019/20 season, no player across the top four divisions of English football has created more chances than Barry Bannan. Not Premier League stars. Not Champions League regulars. Barry Bannan. Season after season, in struggling sides, in relegation fights, in teams patched together under embargoes, he still out-created everyone else. We would sing, “he’s better than Zidane” and whilst that might be a slight exaggeration, it’s only slight.
The stats tell you everything. This wasn’t a player hiding in comfort. This was elite, measurable output delivered under the worst possible conditions. As the club unravelled around him, Bannan became more than a footballer. He became Mr Sheffield Wednesday. A technically gifted midfielder who didn’t treat the club as a stepping stone, but as a home. He fell in love with the city, with the people, and he gave back, most notably through his work as an ambassador for The Children’s Hospital Charity, showing that his commitment went far beyond the pitch.
Eventually, reality caught up. Loyalty can’t fix structural chaos forever. And so, painfully, he had to move on, joining Millwall while Sheffield Wednesday continues to fight fires of its own making.
No reasonable Owls fan holds this against him. No serious fan ever could.
This is a club founded in 1867, a number that all Owls fans know. It is no coincidence that at his new club, Bannan chose the squad number 67. A quiet, classy nod. A reminder that some bonds don’t disappear; they endure. It is also a message: Barry Bannan will return to Sheffield Wednesday one day.
Some players don’t just play for clubs; they become part of them.
Barry Bannan has gone beyond hero status.
Beyond eras. Beyond divisions. Beyond chaos.
Barry Bannan: Legend.
What I’m Doing
Listening: Omega: Chess Team Book 5 by Jeremy Robinson and Kane Gilmour.
Watching: Spartacus (Netflix).
Reading: The Autobiography of Benjamin Sisko by Derek Tyler Attico.
We are enjoying our rewatch of Spartacus on Netflix. It’s utterly over the top and full of questionable CGI and acting, but it’s great fun, and surprisingly deep at times. The best bit, after the language, is the constant Aura Farming. I love it.

Once we are done with Spartacus it might be time to rewatch For All Mankind in preparation for the new season.
Financial Update
Assets
Premium Bonds: £23,000.00.
Stocks and Shares ISA: £128,954.44.
Fuck It Fund: £1.61.
Pensions: £114,203.15.
Residential Property Value: £243,430.00.
Total Assets: £509,589.20.
Debts
Residential Mortgage: £174,531.44.
Total Debts: £174,531.44.
Total Wealth: £335,057.76.



The Three Levers That Quietly Control Financial Independence
When people talk about Financial Independence, they often fixate on a single number, the withdrawal rate, as if it’s a magic setting you either get “right” or “wrong”. In reality, FIRE is controlled by three interlinked levers:
- Your annual spending
- Your chosen withdrawal rate
- Your tolerance for risk over time
The table below shows how small, reasonable adjustments to the first two can dramatically change the size of the pot you need, while the third, success rate, shifts in a much more gradual, predictable way than people expect.
| Withdrawal Rate | Annual Spend | Pot Needed | Success Rate over 30 years according to FIRECalc |
| 4.00% | £30,000.00 | £750,000.00 | 95.20% |
| 4.00% | £29,400.00 | £735,000.00 | 95.20% |
| 4.00% | £28,800.00 | £720,000.00 | 95.20% |
| 5.00% | £30,000.00 | £600,000.00 | 74.40% |
| 5.00% | £29,400.00 | £588,000.00 | 74.40% |
| 5.00% | £28,800.00 | £576,000.00 | 74.40% |
| 6.00% | £30,000.00 | £500,000.00 | 54.40% |
| 6.00% | £29,400.00 | £490,000.00 | 54.40% |
| 6.00% | £28,800.00 | £480,000.00 | 54.40% |
| 4.00% | £30,000.00 | £750,000.00 | 95.20% |
| 4.00% | £29,400.00 | £735,000.00 | 95.20% |
| 4.00% | £28,800.00 | £720,000.00 | 95.20% |
| 4.00% | £28,200.00 | £705,000.00 | 95.20% |
| 4.00% | £27,600.00 | £690,000.00 | 95.20% |
| 4.50% | £30,000.00 | £666,666.67 | 84.00% |
| 4.50% | £29,400.00 | £653,333.33 | 84.00% |
| 4.50% | £28,800.00 | £640,000.00 | 84.00% |
| 4.50% | £28,200.00 | £626,666.67 | 84.00% |
| 4.50% | £27,600.00 | £613,333.33 | 84.00% |
Lever One: Annual Spending (The Quiet Giant)
Start with the 4% rows. Whether you’re spending £30,000 or £27,600 a year, the success rate over 30 years remains the same at 95.2%. Nothing about the risk profile changes. The market doesn’t care whether you’re withdrawing £30k or £28k; the percentage is what matters.
But the size of the pot absolutely does change.
A £100-per-month reduction in spending (£1,200 a year) reduces the required pot by £30,000 at a 4% withdrawal rate. Do that twice, £200 a month, and you’ve knocked £60,000 off your FI target without touching your investments, your asset allocation, or your returns assumptions.
That’s the first under-appreciated truth of FIRE: small, permanent spending changes scale massively over decades.
Lever Two: Withdrawal Rate (The Blunt Instrument)
Now look at what happens when you move the withdrawal rate instead.
At 4%, £30,000 requires £750,000 and gives a 95.2% historical success rate.
At 4.5%, the same income requires £666,667, over £80,000 less, but the success rate drops to 84%.
At 5%, the pot falls to £600,000, with a 74.4% success rate.
At 6%, it’s £500,000, but now you’re flipping a coin at 54.4%.
This is where nuance matters.
Increasing the withdrawal rate is powerful, but it’s not free. You’re trading certainty for speed. What’s often missed, though, is that this trade-off isn’t binary. A move from 4% to 4.5% doesn’t suddenly make FIRE reckless; it shifts the odds in a measurable, understandable way.
And crucially…
Lever Three: Combining the Two (Where the Magic Happens)
The real power comes when you combine modest spending reductions with modest withdrawal-rate changes.
At 4.5%, reducing spending from £30,000 to £27,600 lowers the required pot from £666,667 to £613,333, a £53,000 difference, while keeping the same 84% success rate. You haven’t increased risk at all; you’ve simply reduced how much capital the strategy demands.
This is why FIRE isn’t about heroic deprivation or extreme assumptions. It’s about recognising that spending is a multiplier on your FI number and that your withdrawal rate is a risk dial, not a switch. Flexibility dramatically improves both
Why This Matters More Than Market Returns
People will happily argue for hours about whether 4% is “safe” while ignoring the fact that a £100 monthly spending reduction can eliminate tens of thousands of pounds from the finish line. Or that a 0.5% shift in withdrawal rate can shave years off the journey if paired with flexibility and adaptability. You don’t have to lock into a single withdrawal rate and budget, and then never deviate from it. If you go down one path and it doesn’t work, you have time to pivot.
FIRECalc doesn’t say “this will fail”, it says “this worked X% of the time historically”. Your job isn’t to find a perfect number. It’s to decide which trade-offs you’re comfortable making.
Financial Independence isn’t a single destination. It’s a range of outcomes, and the levers you pull determine how quickly and how comfortably you get there.
DISCLAIMER
The views and opinions in this blog are my own, and do not represent the views or opinions of my former, current, or future employers, nor should they be considered advice.
If you want personalised financial advice, seek an appropriate professional. If you are in financial difficulty, seek advice via the resources below:
Biolink
You can now find all my social media pages by checking out my Biolink:
bio.link/davidscothern.



















































































